篇章数

8

引证文献

0 !

参考文献

188

中国上市公司现金持有政策图书

Corporate Cash Holding Policy of Chinese Listed Companies:Empirical Evidence Based on Financing Constraints Theory

SSAPID:101-5803-8509-88
ISBN:978-7-5097-2110-0
DOI:
ISSN:

[内容简介] 在不存在任何市场摩擦的完美资本市场中,公司外部资金是内部资金的完美替代,公司现金持有政策与公司价值无关。然而,现实世界中的资本市场与假想中的完美资本市场存在较大背离。在借鉴公司现金持有政策现有研究文献的基础上,本书从中国上市公司外部融资的视角,通过Logistic回归模型和多元判别分析模型构建了两个反映公司外部融资约束程度的综合指数——LFC指数和DFC指数,集中考察了外部融资约束与公司现金持有政策之间的关系,得出了一些有意义的结论,提出了促进资本市场发展和公司治理的政策建议,对于构建我国社会主义市场经济体系有一定理论意义和现实意义。

相关信息

丛书名:中国青年学者文库
作 者: 况学文
编 辑:蔡莎莎
出版社:社会科学文献出版社
出版时间: 2011年04月
语 种:中文
中图分类:F8 财政、金融

 第一章 导论

  第一节 研究背景和问题提出

  第二节 研究内容和基本框架

  第三节 研究贡献

 第二章 现金持有政策文献回顾

  第一节 传统权衡理论

   一 理论分析

    (一)Baumol-Tobin模型——平方根定律241;Baumol是通过最小化现金持有成本求解最优现金持有量,而Tobin是通过最大化利息收入减去交易成本的净收益求解最优现金持有量。不过,正如Tobin所指出,他的模型“在本质上与Baumol模型的结果是相同的”(Tobin,1956)247。">*

    (二)Miller-Orr模型——随机模型

    (三)Whalen模型——立方根定律

   二 经验证据

  第二节 代理成本理论

   一 理论分析

   二 经验证据

  第三节 融资约束理论

   一 理论分析

    (一)融资约束的理论分析

     1.信息不对称模型

     2.代理模型

    (二)现金持有政策的融资约束理论模型

     1.Schure模型

     2.Kim-Mauer-Sherman模型

     3.Almeida-Campello-Weisbach模型

   二 经验证据

 第三章 中国上市公司外部融资环境分析

  第一节 中国资本市场的发展历程*

   一 第一阶段:中国资本市场的萌生(1978~1992年)

   二 第二阶段:全国性资本市场的形成和初步发展(1993~1998年)

   三 第三阶段:资本市场的进一步规范和发展(1999年至今)

  第二节 中国资本市场存在的问题

   一 资本市场整体规模偏小,企业外部直接融资受到制约

   二 股票市场规模偏小,企业外部权益融资受到制约

   三 债券市场,尤其是公司债券市场发展滞后,企业直接债务融资受到制约

   四 股票市场和债券市场结构失衡,债券市场的发展相对滞后

   五 直接融资比例较低,企业外部融资严重依赖银行贷款

 第四章 融资约束指数:方法设计与指数评价

  第一节 文献回顾

   一 融资约束度量指标——单变量指标

    (一)股利支付率*

    (二)公司规模

    (三)利息保障倍数

    (四)其他指标

   二 融资约束度量指标——多变量指数

  第二节 融资约束指数:方法设计

   一 实证研究设计

    (一)样本选择和数据来源

    (二)预分组方法和变量选择

     (1)预分组方法

     (2)变量选择

   二 融资约束指数:Logistic回归模型

    (一)Logistic回归模型

    (二)Logistic模型回归结果

   三 融资约束指数:多元判别分析法

    (一)多元判别分析法

    (二)多元判别分析结果

    (三)LFC指数和DFC指数的相关性

  第三节 融资约束指数:指数评价

   一 融资约束分布特征

    (一)年度分布

    (二)行业分布

    (三)股权性质分布

    (四)区域分布

   二 融资约束指数:间接评价

    (一)投资—现金流敏感性文献回顾

    (二)样本选择和数据来源

    (三)回归模型和变量定义

    (四)实证研究结果及其分析

  第四节 本章小结

 第五章 融资约束与公司现金持有政策的实证研究

  第一节 文献回顾

  第二节 实证研究设计

   一 样本选择和数据来源

   二 实证模型和变量定义

    (一)融资约束与现金持有量水平

    (二)融资约束与现金—现金流敏感性

  第三节 实证检验和结果分析

   一 单变量分析(组间均值差异检验)

   二 多变量回归结果及其分析

    (一)融资约束与现金持有量水平的实证检验

    (二)融资约束与现金—现金流敏感性的实证检验

    (三)稳健性测试

    (四)进一步的讨论

  第四节 本章小结

 第六章 融资约束与现金持有量价值的实证研究

  第一节 文献回顾

  第二节 实证研究设计

   一 样本选择和数据来源

   二 实证模型和变量定义

    (一)融资约束与现金持有量的市场价值

    (二)融资约束与现金持有量的边际价值

  第三节 实证检验和结果分析

   一 融资约束与现金持有量的市场价值

   二 融资约束与现金持有量的边际价值

   三 进一步的讨论:现金持有量的价值增强路径检验

  第四节 本章小结

 第七章 金融发展、市场化进程与融资约束的实证研究

  第一节 文献回顾

  第二节 实证研究设计

   一 样本选择和数据来源

   二 实证回归模型和变量定义

    (一)金融发展、市场化进程与投资—现金流敏感性

    (二)金融发展、市场化进程与现金—现金流敏感性

  第三节 实证检验和结果分析

   一 金融发展、市场化进程与投资—现金流敏感性

   二 金融发展、市场化进程与现金—现金流敏感性

  第四节 本章小结

 第八章 研究结论和未来研究方向

  第一节 主要研究结论

  第二节 研究启示和政策建议

  第三节 研究局限和未来研究方向

 内容摘要

在Modigliani和Miller(1958)所描述的完美资本市场中,由于不存在任何市场摩擦,公司外部资金是内部资金的完美替代,公司现金持有政策与公司价值无关。然而,现实世界中的资本市场与假想中的完美资本市场存在较大背离。在放松完美资本市场假设的基础上,财务经济学者从不同的研究视角探讨了公司现金持有政策的决定因素和价值效应,并发展了现金持有政策的传统权衡理论、代理成本理论和融资约束理论,取得了较为丰硕的研究成果。在借鉴公司现金持有政策现有研究文献的基础上,本书从中国上市公司外部融资条件的视角,集中考察了外部融资约束与公司现金持有政策之间的关系。全书共分为八章,各章的具体内容如下。第一章介绍本书的研究问题、研究内容、研究框架以及研究的贡献与创新。第二章系统、全面地梳理了公司现金持有政策研究文献,并归纳与整理出一种新的现金持有政策理论——融资约束理论,指出公司外部融资约束是影响公司现金持有政策的一项重要因素。第三章分析了中国上市公司外部融资环境的宏观背景,阐述了中国资本市场的发展历程及存在的问题,以及这些问题对公司外部融资能力的影响。第四章利用中国上市公司1999~2005年的财务数据,通过Logistic回归模型和多元判别分析模型构建了两个反映公司外部融资约束程度的综合指数——LFC指数和DFC指数,并以“投资—现金流敏感性”(Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity)这一工具对两个融资约束指数进行简单、间接的评价。第五章利用中国上市公司2000~2006年的财务数据,采用LFC指数和DFC指数,分别从现金持有量水平和现金持有量变化两方面考察融资约束与公司现金持有政策之间的关系。第六章利用中国上市公司2000~2006年的财务数据和市场数据,采用LFC指数和DFC指数,分别从现金持有量的市场价值和边际价值两方面考察融资约束与现金持有量价值之间的关系。第七章利用中国上市公司2000~2005年的财务数据以及2000-2005年中国各地区金融发展水平指数和市场化总体指数,分别从投资—现金流敏感性和现金—现金流敏感性(Cash-Cash Flow Sensitivity)两方面考察金融发展和市场化进程对中国上市公司外部融资约束的缓解效应。第八章综合本书的研究结果,得出主要研究结论、研究启示及政策建议,并指出本书研究的不足以及未来进一步的研究方向。本书主要的研究结果如下。第一,构建了两个反映公司外部融资约束程度的综合指数——LFC指数和DFC指数。从两个指数本身的判别能力看,两个指数的判别能力均达到90%以上;同时,两个指数的相关系数为0.709,且在1%的水平上显著。第二,流动性约束投资模型比Q投资模型能够更好地解释中国上市公司的投资行为;同时,无论以LFC指数还是DFC指数为标准,高融资约束公司的投资—现金流敏感性均显著高于低融资约束公司的投资—现金流敏感性。第三,从现金持有量水平看,中国上市公司融资约束程度与现金持有量水平之间呈现一种显著为负的相关关系,且这种负相关关系主要源于高融资约束公司的内、外部资金来源约束;而从现金持有量变化看,中国上市公司融资约束程度与现金—现金流敏感性之间存在一种显著为正的相关关系,表明融资约束程度较高的公司比融资约束程度较低的公司具有更高的现金积累倾向。第四,高融资约束公司现金持有量的市场价值和边际价值均显著高于低融资约束公司;进一步的实证研究发现,融资约束公司现金持有量之所以具有较高的价值,主要源于现金持有量能够缓解融资约束公司潜在的投资不足问题。第五,从投资—现金流敏感性看,金融发展和市场化进程能够显著地降低高融资约束组公司的投资—现金流敏感性,缓解其外部融资约束,但对于低融资约束公司,金融发展和市场化进程并没有显著地降低其投资—现金流敏感性,缓解其外部融资约束;而从现金—现金流敏感性看,金融发展和市场化进程虽然从统计意义上没有显著降低高融资约束组和低融资约束组公司的现金—现金流敏感性,但进一步的研究发现,金融发展和市场化进程对高融资约束组和低融资约束组的作用方向是不一致的。对于高融资约束组,金融发展和市场化进程的作用方向为负向,而对于低融资约束组,金融发展和市场化进程的作用方向为正向。因此,我们只有微弱的证据表明,金融发展和市场化进程能够降低高融资约束组公司的现金—现金流敏感性,缓解其外部融资约束程度,但这种作用十分有限。本书的主要贡献与创新之处表现为以下方面。第一,在公司现金持有政策现有研究文献的基础上,归纳和整理出一种新的现金持有政策理论——融资约束理论,并以此理论为基础,实证考察融资约束条件下公司现金持有政策及其价值效应。第二,利用Logistic回归模型和多元判别分析模型构建了两个反映公司外部融资约束程度的综合指数——LFC指数和DFC指数。第三,中国作为发展中国家的代表,本书充分利用其资本市场的独特数据,系统全面地考察了融资约束与现金持有量价值之间的关系。本书研究的不足之处主要表现为:Himmelberg,Love和Allende(2003)指出,除了交易动机,融资约束和代理成本可能是公司现金持有政策最主要的两种解释。尽管他们同时强调指出,由于融资约束的一些理论就是完全源于代理冲突,因此,严格区分这两种理论解释并不一定是有用的。但在研究过程中,笔者没有考虑公司治理问题而集中考察融资约束对公司现金持有政策的影响,导致本书的研究结论存在一定的片面性和局限性。同时,我们主要使用横截面静态回归分析,没有从动态角度研究融资约束对公司现金持有政策的影响,没有考虑融资约束与现金持有政策之间的互动关系,导致本书的研究结论可能缺乏一定的稳定性。

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