Preface Three Issues Related to Rebalance of Global Economy

 《工资、汇率与顺差——中国经济再平衡路径选择》课题组名单

 总论 探索中国经济再平衡之路

  一 当前中美贸易不平衡及其原因分析

   （一）从宏观经济学恒等式看中国经济不平衡

    1.中国经济不平衡的两大突出表现

    2.中国经济不平衡的原因分析

    3.巨额外贸顺差让中国经济付出了沉重代价

   （二）美国指控中国操纵人民币汇率

   （三）中美两国贸易不平衡的原因

   （四）人民币面临升值压力的原因

  二 有关人民币汇率升值的争论

   （一）美国彼得森国际经济研究所的观点

   （二）麦金农和其他关于人民币汇率的观点

    1.麦金农关于人民币汇率的观点

    2.其他关于人民币汇率的观点

   （三）正确认识人民币汇率升值问题

    1.人民币汇率是伴随中国经济起飞过程始终的长期性问题*

    2.妥善处理人民币汇率问题，有助于中国经济成功地实现转型

  三 人民币实际汇率升值的三条路径

   （一）汇率一次性大幅度升值的负面影响

   （二）中国工人工资存在较大的提升空间

   （三）人民币实际汇率升值有三条途径

  四 本书的研究思路和内容框架

 第一章 中国经济再平衡路径之一：增加劳动者工资

  一 中国劳动者工资现状及发展趋势

   （一）中国劳动者工资现状分析

   （二）中国劳动者长期低工资的原因

   （三）长期低工资的积极作用和不良后果

   （四）中国劳动者工资增长趋势

  二 建立工资合理增长机制的理论基础

   （一）增加工资可以减缓人民币汇率升值压力

   （二）增加工资可以促进劳动生产率提高

   （三）增加工资产生诸多宏观经济效应

  三 工资增长方面的国际经验

   （一）日本国民收入倍增计划

    1.日本国民收入倍增计划的实施*

    2.日本国民收入倍增计划成功的原因分析

   （二）俄罗斯“符合穷人利益”的经济倍增计划

    1.俄罗斯经济倍增计划的实施

    2.俄罗斯经济倍增计划成功的原因分析

  四 建立工资合理增长机制的对策

   （一）完善最低工资保障制度

   （二）加快社会保障体系建设

   （三）完善工资集体谈判机制

   （四）建立健全合理的财税政策

   （五）加快国有垄断企业改革

 第二章 中国经济再平衡路径之二：人民币汇率升值

  一 彼得森国际经济研究所均衡汇率模型

   （一）彼得森研究所均衡汇率模型概况

    1.彼得森研究所汇率研究报告

    2.均衡汇率理论发展概述

    3.彼得森研究所SMIM模型简介

   （二）彼得森研究所均衡汇率模型的五大问题

    问题一：将经常项目账户均衡作为唯一汇率目标

    问题二：各国经常账户均衡目标设置缺乏依据

    问题三：出口价格弹性仅考虑汇率因素，没有考虑国内生产成本、产品竞争力等因素

    问题四：存在汇率变动只影响出口额，不影响进口额的不合理假设

    问题五：出口价格弹性取值程式化、简单化，仅与出口比例有关

   （三）彼得森研究所“新模型”的缺陷

  二 汇率应该综合体现一国经济发展水平

   （一）汇率应该综合体现一国经济发展水平

   （二）数据检验：消费、投资变动对经常账户的影响

   （三）人民币汇率未来升值空间预测

  三 汇率升值的国际经验和教训

   （一）世界各国汇率升值的一般规律

    1.单独依靠人民币升值并不能完全消除中国经常账户顺差

    2.近期人民币汇率并未明显偏离合理均衡水平

    3.人民币较快升值将加大中国经济过度波动的风险

   （二）20世纪80年代日本和德国汇率升值的经验教训

    1.日本、德国等国家汇率升值的背景与情况

    2.汇率升值后各国都采取了宽松的货币政策

    3.各国资产价格都出现不同程度的膨胀

    4.各国实体经济部门变化差异很大

    5.国际比较得出的几点经验与教训

  四 人民币汇率形成机制改革及政策建议

   （一）推进人民币汇率形成机制改革的意义

    1.有利于减轻通胀压力和资产泡沫压力

    2.有利于促进中国经济结构调整和发展方式转变

   （二）人民币汇率形成机制改革回顾

    1.人民币汇率形成机制改革进程

    2.汇改之后，人民币汇率处于升值通道

    3.人民币有效汇率整体处于升值趋势，弹性增强

   （三）人民币汇率形成机制改革进程中的问题

    1.人民币汇率水平不能完全反映市场供求变化

    2.货币篮子和权重的确定比较复杂

    3.汇率波动幅度锁定，市场自动调节功能失效

   （四）深化人民币汇率形成机制改革的建议

    1.增强汇率弹性，破解汇率单边升值预期

    2.进一步推进利率市场化改革

    3.丰富汇率风险管理工具，建立有效的风险对冲手段

    4.渐进式推进人民币汇率形成机制改革

 第三章 中国经济再平衡三大路径比较

  一 “汇率升值”路径产生的效果

  二 “增加工资”路径产生的效果

  三 第三种路径：“渐进式增加工资+渐进式汇率升值”

   （一）日本渐进式增加工资和渐进式汇率升值的经验

   （二）“渐进式增加工资+渐进式汇率升值”的必要性

   （三）正确处理汇率机制改革和要素价格调整的关系

  四 中国经济再平衡需要采取六大对冲措施

   1.第一个对冲措施：加快自主创新步伐

   2.第二个对冲措施：加工贸易模式转型

   3.第三个对冲措施：劳动密集型模式转型

   4.第四个对冲措施：资源密集型模式转型

   5.第五个对冲措施：要素价格市场化

   6.第六个对冲措施：加快人民币的国际化

 第四章 中国经济再平衡第一大对冲措施：加快自主创新步伐

  一 自主创新是新时期中国国家发展战略的核心

   （一）技术创新是国强民富的恒久动力

   （二）自主创新是新时期中国国家发展战略的核心

   （三）后危机时代凸显自主创新的紧迫性

   （四）企业应成为自主创新的主体

  二 自主创新是突破“中等收入陷阱”的关键

   （一）经济发展存在“中等收入陷阱”

   （二）中国正面临“中等收入陷阱”的挑战

    1.收入分配差距持续扩大

    2.农民工城镇化面临挑战

    3.产业结构优化升级困难

    4.国际经济风险更加复杂

    5.公共服务不足孕育风险

   （三）自主创新是突破“中等收入陷阱”的关键

    1.自主创新是实现经济可持续增长的关键

    2.自主创新是推动产业升级的动力

    3.自主创新是提高核心竞争力的保障

    4.自主创新可以提高居民的福利水平

   （四）日本、韩国成功突破“中等收入陷阱”的经验及启示

    1.日本技术创新经验

    2.韩国的技术创新经验

    3.对中国的启示

  三 建立健全有利于自主创新的体制机制

   （一）制约中国自主创新能力提高的体制障碍

    1.市场体制不完善，未能形成有效推进自主创新的法制和社会环境

    2.政府作用和政策效应没有发挥好，未能形成完善的自主创新运作机制和政策体系

    3.企业创新能力不足，创新的动力机制有待完善

   （二）创新体制机制，提高自主创新能力

    1.建立健全市场经济制度，形成有利于自主创新的法制和社会风尚

    2.政府应完善鼓励自主创新的政策和社会环境

    3.强化企业在自主创新中的主体地位

    4.深化科研体制改革，形成开放、流动、竞争、协作的知识创新体系

    5.充分利用国际市场的科技资源提升自主创新能力

 第五章 中国经济再平衡第二大对冲措施：加快加工贸易模式转型

  一 中国加工贸易产业发展趋势

   （一）中国加工贸易产业发展概况

    1.中国加工贸易产业发展概况

    2.进料加工代替来料加工，成为加工贸易的主要形式

    3.出口商品结构优化，机电、高新技术出口比重增加

    4.一般贸易增长快于加工贸易，民营企业增长强劲

   （二）中国加工贸易的“双刃剑”效应

    1.加工贸易对经济增长的促进作用

    2.加工贸易对技术进步的促进作用

    3.加工贸易对就业的拉动作用

   （三）中国加工贸易转型升级的方向

  二 中国加工贸易面临的现实挑战

   （一）中国加工贸易处于全球价值链低端

   （二）与国内其他产业的关联度较低

   （三）加工贸易企业可能向境外迁移

   （四）正面临不利的国内外政策环境

  三 中国加工贸易转型升级的对策

   （一）亟须提升国内产业配套能力

    1.提升国内产业配套能力

    2.延长产品生产加工链条，促进深加工结转

    3.增强中西部地区的承接能力，实施加工贸易区域间转移

    4.推进加工贸易企业开拓国内市场，扩大内销份额

    5.促进国内生产网络的形成与延伸

   （二）将加工贸易和服务贸易结合起来

   （三）建立技术创新和自主品牌建设保障体系

    1.制订技术创新和自主品牌建设规划

    2.夯实加工贸易发展的产业基础

    3.构建加工贸易转型升级的技术创新体系

    4.将加工贸易转型升级战略与“走出去”战略相结合

    5.加大对自主品牌建设的资金支持

    6.做好商标、专利、质量、标准等基础性保障工作

   （四）加强加工贸易专业人才培养

 第六章 中国经济再平衡第三大对冲措施：加快劳动密集型模式转型

  一 中国劳动密集型产业面临的问题

   （一）工资上升影响劳动密集型产业竞争力

   （二）汇率升值影响劳动密集型产业竞争力

   （三）劳动密集型行业面临劳动力供给瓶颈

  二 继续发挥劳动密集型产业优势的必要性

   （一）发展劳动密集型产业有利于促进就业

   （二）劳动密集型产业仍然具有比较优势

  三 实现劳动密集型模式转型的对策

   （一）劳动密集型产业与资金和技术密集型产业协同发展

   （二）通过创新促进产业升级

   （三）发挥城市化的独特作用

   （四）实现承接产业的区域转移

   （五）发挥服务业吸纳就业的优势

   （六）普遍提高劳动者的技能

 第七章 中国经济再平衡第四大对冲措施：加快资源密集型模式转型

  一 加快资源密集型模式转型的必要性

   （一）资源环境承载力难以支撑资源密集型模式

    1.土地资源供需矛盾日益突出

    2.水资源利用面临严峻挑战

    3.矿产资源人均占有量少，储备严重不足

    4.能源供需矛盾日益严重

   （二）中国贸易竞争力提升受到严重阻碍

    1.不断遭遇绿色贸易壁垒

    2.进口资源加大了企业的生产成本

    3.出口商品结构升级受到制约

   （三）资源密集型产业加剧了中国经济失衡

  二 资源密集型模式转型案例分析

   （一）日本资源密集型模式转型经验

    1.优化出口商品结构，减少高耗能产品比例，减少资源浪费

    2.发展循环经济和环保产业，提高资源再生利用率

    3.开拓海外资源供给渠道，保证资源供应

   （二）美国资源密集型模式转型经验

    1.积极推进资源节约

    2.大力发展新型能源

    3.实施控制全球资源的战略

  三 中国资源密集型模式转型路径选择

   （一）加快产业结构调整和升级

   （二）加快推进技术进步与创新

   （三）建立和完善绿色贸易政策体系

   （四）加大从境外进口资源和技术

   （五）推动国内企业实施“走出去”战略

 第八章 中国经济再平衡第五大对冲措施：要素价格市场化

  一 要素价格扭曲的危害性和改革的必要性

   （一）中国要素价格改革历史回顾

   （二）中国要素价格扭曲的具体表现

    1.要素市场扭曲已使中国经济不堪承受

    2.中国要素价格水平总体偏低

    3.没有形成全国统一的要素市场

    4.中国要素价格扭曲的具体表现

   （三）要素价格改革可以减轻人民币升值压力

   （四）要素价格改革可以促进中国经济再平衡

   （五）推进价格市场化改革的原则和工作重点

    1.推进价格改革的四大原则

    2.下一步价格改革工作的重点

  二 加快利率市场化改革及其对策

   （一）中国利率市场化改革历史回顾

    1.中国利率市场化改革过程

    2.中国利率市场化改革取得的成绩

   （二）中国利率长期扭曲的危害性

   （三）利率市场化过程中存在的问题

    1.市场主体对利率缺乏敏感性

    2.利率传导机制不通畅

   （四）加快利率市场化改革的建议

    1.利率市场化的基本内容

    2.加快建设利率市场化的形成机制

    3.加快建设利率市场化的传导机制

 第九章 中国经济再平衡第六大对冲措施：加快人民币国际化

  一 人民币国际化的历史机遇

   （一）货币国际化的理论探讨

   （二）人民币国际化的现状：两个“三步走”战略

   （三）同步推进人民币结算、投资和储备职能的必要性

  二 加快人民币国际化的路径选择

   （一）积极推进跨境贸易人民币结算

   （二）双边货币互换由应急外汇储备扩展到一般性贸易支付

   （三）大力发展可供境外人民币投资的金融市场

   （四）扩大对外援助、贷款和对外直接投资领域中的人民币使用

  三 优化人民币国际化的配套条件

   （一）保持国民经济持续稳定增长

   （二）加强短期资本流动监测，逐步开放资本账户

   （三）夯实人民币国际化的市场微观基础

   （四）进一步提高中国在国际金融组织中地位

  四 加快上海国际金融中心建设

   （一）上海国际金融中心的双重战略目标

   （二）加快上海国际金融中心建设必须克服两大障碍

   （三）加快上海国际金融中心建设必须实现六个突破

 Pandect Exploration of Rebalance of China’s Economy

  Ⅰ Current Sino-American Trade Imbalance and Analysis of its Underlying Reasons

   1.Research on Imbalance of Chinese Economy from the Perspective of Macro-economics Identity

    （1）Two Features in Imbalance of Chinese Economy

    （2）Analysis of Underlying Logic of China’s Economic Imbalance

    （3）China’s Economy Paid a Huge Price for Trade Surplus

   2.The United States Accused China of Manipulating RMB Exchange Rate

   3.Causes of Sino-American Trade Imbalance

   4.The Reasons Why RMB is Faced with Appreciation Pressure

  Ⅱ Arguments over RMB Exchange Rate

   1.Views of Peterson Institute for International Economics

   2.Views on RMB Exchange Rate from Ronald I. McKinnon and Others

    （1）McKinnon’s Views on RMB Exchange Rate

    （2）Other Viewpoints on RMB Exchange Rate

   3.Correct Understanding of RMB Exchange Rate’s Appreciation

    （1）RMB Exchange Rate is a Long-term Problem Accompanying the Whole Course of China’s Economic Taking-off

    （2）Careful and Skilful Handling the Problem of RMB Exchange Rate is Helpful to the Successful Transformation of China’s Economy

  Ⅲ Three Paths for the Appreciation of the Real Exchange Rate of RMB

   1.Adverse Effects of One-off Substantial Appreciation of the Exchange Rate

   2.There is a Big Increase Space of Remuneration for China’s Labor

   3.Three Approaches for the Appreciation of the Real Exchange Rate of RMB

  Ⅳ Methodology and Structure

 Chapter Ⅰ The First Path of Rebalancing China’s Economy：Raising Laborers’ Wage

  Ⅰ Current Situation and Development Trend of Laborers’ Wage in China

   1.Analysis for Current Situation of Laborers’ Wage in China

   2.Reasons for Chinese Laborers’ Long-term Low Wage

   3.Positive Effects and Adverse Consequences of Long-term Low Wage

   4.Growth Trends of Chinese Laborers’ Wage

  Ⅱ Theoretical Basis for Establishment of Reasonable Wage Growth Mechanism

   1.Wage Hike can Alleviate the Pressure on RMB Exchange Rate Appreciation

   2.Wage Hike can Contribute to Improve Labor Productivity Level

   3.Wage Hike Gives Birth to Various Macro-economic Effects

  Ⅲ International Experience in Terms of Wage Growth

   1.Japan’s National Income Doubling Plan

    （1）Implementation of Japan’s National Income Doubling PlanObservation and Thinking，2010（7）.">*

    （2）Analysis on Reasons for the Success of Japan’s National Income Doubling Plan

   2.Russia’s Economic Doubling Plan “In the Interests of the Poor”

    （1）Implementation of Russia’s Economic Doubling Plan

    （2）Analysis on Reasons for the Success of Russia’s Economic Doubling Plan

  Ⅳ Proper Measures for Establishment of Reasonable Wage Growth Mechanism

   1.Improving the Minimum Wage Guarantee System

   2.Quickening the Construction of Social Security System

   3.Improving Collective Wage Bargaining Mechanism

   4.Establishing Sound and Reasonable Fiscal and Tax Policies

   5.Accelerating the Reform of State-owned Monopolies to Enrich People

 Chapter Ⅱ The Second Path of Rebalancing China’s Economy：Raising the RMB Exchange Rate

  Ⅰ Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model by Peterson Institute for International Economics

   1.An Overview on Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model by Peterson Institute

    （1）The Research on Exchange Rate by Peterson Institute

    （2）An Overview on the Evolvement of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Theory

    （3）Introduction to SMIM Model Developed by Peterson Institute

   2.Five Questions About Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model Developed by Peterson Institute

    Question One：Current Account Equilibrium is Taken as the Sole Objective of Exchange rate

    Question Two：the Establishment of Current Account Equilibrium is not Well-grounded

    Question Three：Export Price Elasticity Gives Consideration only to Exchange Rate Factor but not to Factors such as Domestic Production Cost and Product Competitiveness

    Question Four：an Unreasonable Assumption that the Changes of Exchange Rates Influence only the Amount of Exports Volume but not that of Imports

   3.Flaws of the “New Model” Developed by Peterson Institute

  Ⅱ Exchange Rates Should be a Comprehensive Embodiment of the Level of Economic Development of One Country

   1.Exchange Rates Should be a Comprehensive Embodiment of Level of Economic Development of One Country

   2.Data Validation：Influences of Consumption and Investment Variation on Current Account

   3.Predication on Appreciation Space of RMB Exchange Rate in Future

  Ⅲ The International Experience and Lessons from the Appreciation of the Exchange Rate

   1.The General Rule on the Appreciation of the Exchange Rates of all the Countries in the World

    （1）China’s Current Account Surplus can not be Completely Eliminated Only by RMB Appreciation

    （2）The RMB Exchange Rate did not Obviously Deviate from Reasonable Equilibrium Level Recently

    （3）The Relatively Rapid Appreciation of RMB will Increase China’s Over-fluctuation Economy Risks

   2.Lessons from Exchange Rate Appreciation in Japan and Germany

    （1）Background and Context of Appreciation in Japan and Germany

    （2）Loose Monetary Policy was the Universal Practice in Major Industrial Countries

    （3）All Countries were Struck by Increase of Asset Price

    （4）Price Changes in Real Economy were Different in Major Industrial Countries

    （5）Lessons We can Learn

  Ⅳ Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism and Policy Recommendations

   1.Significance of Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism

    （1）Helpful to Alleviate the Pressure of Inflation and Asset Bubbles

    （2）Helpful to Expedite Chinese Economic Structure Adjustment and Development Pattern Change

   2.Reviews of Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism

    （1）Process of Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism

    （2）RMB Exchange Rate in Bullish Channel After the Exchange Rate Reform

    （3）Effective Exchange Rate of RMB in Growing Trend With Stronger Elasticity

   3.Setbacks in the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism

    （1）The Level of RMB Exchange Rate can’t Fully Reflect the Change in Market Supply

    （2）It is Complicated to Determine a Basket of Currencies and Weighing

    （3）The Change of Exchange Rate is Locked and Automatic Market Adjustment is Invalid

   4.Recommendations for Deepening the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism

    （1）To Enhance Elasticity of Exchange Rate，and Make Unilateral Revaluation Fall Short of Expectations

    （2）To Further Promote the Reform of Marketing Interest Rate

    （3）To Enrich Exchange Rate Risk Management Instruments and Build Effective Means of Risk Hedging

    （4）To Progressively Propel the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism

 Chapter Ⅲ Comparison of Three Paths to Rebalancing China’s Economy

  Ⅰ Effect of “Exchange Rate Revaluation” Path

  Ⅱ Effect of “Increase of Wage” Path

  Ⅲ The Third Path of Rebalancing China’s Economy：“Gradual Increase of Wage + Gradual Appreciation of RMB Exchange Rate”

   1.Japan’s Experience in Gradual Wage-increase and Gradual Appreciation of the Exchange rate

   2.Necessity of “Gradual Increase of Wage + Gradual Appreciation of RMB Exchange Rate”

   3.Relationship Between Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism and Adjustment of Factor Prices Should be Properly Handled

  Ⅳ The Six Hedging Measures China Government Should Adopt to Rebalance its Economy

   1.The First Hedging Measure：Accelerating the Pace of Independent Innovation

   2.The Second Hedging Measure：Accelerating the Transformation of Processing Trade Mode

   3.The Third Hedging Measure：Accelerating the Transformation of Labor-intensive Mode

   4.The Fourth Hedging Measure：Accelerating the Transformation from Resource-intensive Mode

   5.The Fifth Hedging Measure：Marketization Of Production Factor Price

   6.The Sixth Hedging Measure：Accelerating the RMB Internationalization

 Chapter Ⅳ The First Hedging Measure to Rebalance China’s Economy：Accelerating the Pace of Independent Innovation

  Ⅰ Independent Innovation is the Strategic Core of China’s National Development in the New Period

   1.Technological Innovation is the Constant Driving Force for Making the Nation Strong and People Rich

   2.Independent Innovation is the Strategic Core of China’s National Development in the New Period

   3.The Urgent Need of Independent Innovation in Post-crisis Era

   4.The Enterprises Should Play a Dominant Role in Independent Innovation

  Ⅱ Independent Innovation is the Key to Avoid the “Middle Income Trap”

   1.“Middle Income Trap” Exists in Economic Growth

   2.China is Facing the Challenge of the “Middle Income Trap”

    （1）Income Gap Continued to Widen

    （2）Urbanization of Migrant Workers Faces Challenges

    （3）Main Difficulties in Optimizing and Upgrading the Industrial Structure

    （4）A more Complex International Economic Risk

    （5）The Inadequate Public Services Generates Potential Risks

   3.Independent Innovation is the Key to Avoid the “Middle-income Trap”

    （1）Independent Innovation is the Key to Realizing Sustainable Economic Growth

    （2）Independent Innovation is a Driving Force for Promoting Industrial Upgrading

    （3）Independent Innovation is a Guarantee for Improving the Core Competitiveness

    （4）Independent Innovation can Improve People’s Welfare Level

   4.The Experience and Enlightenments of Japan and South Korea in Successfully Breaking Through the “Middle-income Trap”

    （1）Experience of Japan in Technological Innovation

    （2）Experience of South Korea in Technological Innovation

    （3）Enlightenments to China

  Ⅲ Establish and Perfect Systems and Mechanisms Conducive to Independent Innovation

   1.System Obstacles Curbing the Promotion of China’s Independent Innovation Capacity

    （1）The Market System is Imperfect and the Legal and Social Environments that can Effectively Promote Independent Innovation Have not yet Formed.

    （2）Perfect Operation Systems and Policy Systems for Independent Innovation Have not yet Formed due to a Poor Utilization of Government Role and Policy Effect

    （3）Enterprises Have a Low Innovation Capacity and an Innovation Motive Mechanism Needs to be Perfected.

   2.Improve the Independent Innovation Capacity Through Innovation Systems and Mechanisms

    （1）Establish and Perfect a Market Economy System and Form Legal and Social Environments Good for Independent Innovation.

    （2）The Government Should Perfect the Policies and Social Environment Encouraging Independent Innovation

    （3）Strengthening the Dominant Position of Enterprises in Independent Innovation

    （4）Deepening the Reform Of the Scientific Research System and Forming an Open，Mobile，Competitive and Cooperative Knowledge Innovation System

    （5）Making the Best Use of the Science and Technology Resources on the International Market to Promote our Capacity of Independent Innovation

 Chapter Ⅴ The Second Hedging Measure to Rebalance China’s Economy：Accelerating the Transformation of Processing Trade Mode

  Ⅰ The Development Trend of China’s Processing Trade Industry

   1.Profile of China’s Processing Trade Industry Development

    （1）Profile of China’s Processing Trade Industry Development

    （2）The Major Trend is that the Processing with Imported Materials is Replacing the Processing with Supplied Materials

    （3）The Structure of Exported Goods is Optimized and the Proportion of Export of Electromechanical Equipments and High and New Technologies is Increasing

    （4）The Growth of General Trade is Faster than Processing Trade and the Growth of Private Enterprises is Strong

   2.“Double-edged Sword” Effect of China’s Processing Trade

    （1）The Promoting Effect of Processing Trade on the Economic Growth

    （2）The Promoting Effect of the Processing Trade on the Technological Progress

    （3）The Driving Force of Processing Trade for Employment

   3.The Direction of Transformation and Upgrading of China’s Processing Trade

  Ⅱ Realistic Challenges Faced by China’s Processing Trade

   1.China’s Processing Trade is at the Low End of the Global Value Chain

   2.The Degree of Correlation with Other Domestic Industries is Relatively Low

   3.Processing Trade Enterprises Might Move to Foreign Countries

   4.Unfavorable Domestic and Overseas Policy Environment

  Ⅲ Countermeasures for Transformation and Upgrading of China’s Processing Trade

   1.It is Urgent to Increase the Domestic Industrial Supporting Capacity

    （1）Increase the Domestic Industrial Supporting Capacity

    （2）Extend the Chain of Product Processing and Deepen the Deep Processing Carry-over

    （3）Increase the Ability of Central and Western Areas to Undertake the Processing Trade and Implement the Transfer of Processing Trade Between Areas

    （4）Promote the Processing Trade Enterprises to Expand Domestic Market and Enlarge the Share of Domestic Sale

    （5）Promote the Formation and Extension of Domestic Production Network

   2.Combine the Processing Trade with Service Trade

   3.Establish a Security System for Technology Innovation and Building of Self-owned Brands

    （1）Formulate the Plan for Technology Innovation and Self-owned Brand Building

    （2）Solidify the Industrial Foundation for Development of Processing Trade

    （3）Build a Technology Innovation System for the Transformation and Upgrading of Processing Trade

    （4）Combine the Processing Trade Transformation and Upgrading Strategy with the “Going Global” Strategy

    （5）Provide more Capital Support for the Building of Self-owned Brands

    （6）Properly Carry out the Fundamental Security Work in Terms of Trademark，Patent，Quality and Standard

   4.Intensify the Cultivation of Professionals for Processing Trade

 Chapter Ⅵ The Third Hedging Measure to Rebalance China’s Economy：Accelerating the Transformation of Labor-intensive Mode

  Ⅰ Problems of China’s Labor-intensive Industries

   （1）The Wage Rise Affects the Industrial Competitiveness of Labor-intensive Industries

   2.The Exchange Rate Appreciation Affects the Industrial Competitiveness of Labor-intensive Industries

   3.Labor-intensive Industries are Facing Labor Supply Bottlenecks

  Ⅱ The Necessity of Continuing the Advantages of Labor-intensive Industries

   1.Developing Labor-intensive Industries is Conducive to Promoting Employment

   2.Labor-intensive Industries Still Have Comparative Advantages

  Ⅲ Countermeasures for Realizing the Transformation of Labor-intensive Mode

   1.The Joint Development of Labor-intensive Industries and Capital and Technology-intensive Industries

   2.Promote the Industrial Upgrading Through Innovation

   3.Play the Unique Role of Urbanization

   4.Realize the Regional Transfer of Industries Undertaken

   5.Exert the Advantage of the Service Industry in Creating Jobs

   6.Generally Increase the Skills of Laborers

 Chapter Ⅶ The Fourth Hedging Measure to Rebalance China’s Economy：Accelerating the Transformation from Resource-intensive Mode

  Ⅰ The Necessity to Accelerate the Transformation from Resource-intensive Mode

   1.Resources and Environment can not Support Resource-intensive Mode

    （1）Increasingly Serious Contradiction Between Demand and Supply of Land Resource

    （2）Serious Challenges from Utilization of Water Resource

    （3）Low Mineral Resource per Capita，Serious Shortage of its Reserve

    （4）Increasingly Serious Contradiction Between the Demand and Supply of Energy

   2.Improvement in Chinese Trade Competitiveness is Obstructed

    （1）Green Trade Barrier

    （2）Imported Resources Lead to Increased Manufacturing Costs

    （3）Upgrading of the Structure of Export Commodities is Restrained

   3.Resource-intensive Industries Worsens China’s Economic Imbalance

  Ⅱ Case Study for the Transformation of Resource-intensive Mode

   1.Japanese Experience in Transformation of Resource-intensive Mode

    （1）Optimize the Structure of Export Commodities，Reduce the Proportion of High-energy-consumption Products，Reduce Wasting of Resources

    （2）Develop Recycling Economy and Environment Industry and Improve Recycle and Utilization Levels of Resources

    （3）Develop Overseas Resource Supply Channels，to Guarantee Resource Supply

   2.US Experience in Transformation from Resource-intensive Mode

    （1）Actively Promoted Energy Saving

    （2）Make Great Efforts in Developing New Energies

    （3）Implement the Strategy to Control Global Resources

  Ⅲ How does China Transform its Resource-intensive Mode

   1.Facilitate the Adjustment and Upgrading of Industrial Structure

   2.Accelerate and Promote Technical Advancement and Innovation

   3.Establish and Complete Green Trade Policy System

   4.Increase the Import of Resources and Technologies

   5.Promote Domestic Companies to “Go Global”

 Chapter Ⅷ The Fifth Hedging Measure to Rebalance China’s Economy：Marketization of Production Factor Price

  Ⅰ Harmful Effects of Distorted Production Factor Price and Inevitability of Reform

   1.Recap of Production Factor Price Reform in China

   2.Reflections of Distorted Factor Price in China

    （1）Distorted Factor Market Threatens to Weigh down China’s Economy

    （2）Generally Low Level of Factor Price in China

    （3）Failure to Form a Unified Factor Market in China

    （4）Reflections of Distorted Factor Price in China

   3.Factor Price Reform May Reduce Pressure on Appreciation of RMB

   4.Factor Price Reform May Promote Economic Rebalance in China

   5.Principles and Focuses of Promoting Price Market Reform

    （1）The Four Principles of Promoting Price Reform

    （2）Focuses in the Next Phase of Price Reform

  Ⅱ Expedite Market Reform of Interest Rate and its Countermeasures

   1.Recap of Market Reform of Interest Rate in China

    （1）The Process of Market Reform of Interest Rate in China

    （2）Achievements Made in Market Reform of China’s Interest Rate

   2.Harmful Effects of Long-standing Distorted Interest Rate in China

   3.Problems in the Process of Interest Rate Marketization

    （1）Market Entities Lack Sensitivity to Interest Rate

    （2）Obstructed Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism

   4.Suggestions on How to Speed up Interest Rate Marketization Reform

    （1）Basic Contents of Interest Rate Marketization

    （2）Speed up Establishment of Marketized Formation Mechanism of Interest Rate

    （3）Speed up Establishment of Transmission Mechanism for Marketization of Interest Rate

 Chapter Ⅸ The Sixth Hedging Measure to Rebalance China’s Economy：Accelerating the RMB Internationalization

  Ⅰ Historic Opportunity for RMB Internationalization

   1.Discussion About the Theory of Currency Internationalization

   2.Current Status of RMB Internationalization：Two “Three-step” Strategies

   3.Necessities to Promote Functions of RMB Settlement，Investment and Reserve

  Ⅱ Acceleration of Route Selection for RMB Internationalization

   1.To Actively Promote RMB Cross-border Trade Settlement

   2.To Extend Bilateral Currency Swap Function from Urgent Foreign Exchange Reserve to General Trade Payment

   3.To Strive to Develop Financial Market for Offshore RMB Investment

   4.To Expand RMB Utilization in Foreign Aid，Loan and Foreign Direct Investment

  Ⅲ To Optimize Associated Conditions of RMB Internationalization

   1.To Maintain Sustainable and Stable Growth of National Economy

   2.To Strengthen Short-term Capital Flow Monitoring and Gradually Liberalize Capital Account

   3.To Strengthen Market Micro-Foundation of RMB Internationalization

   4.To Further Improve China’s Position in International Financial Organization

  Ⅳ To Accelerate Construction of Shanghai International Financial Center

   1.Dual Strategic Goals Set by Shanghai International Financial Center

   2.Two Obstacles to be Overcome in Accelerating Construction of Shanghai International Financial Center

   3.To Achieve Six Breakthroughs for the Acceleration of Shanghai International Financial Center Construction

 序言 全球经济再平衡的三个相关问题

本书通过对工资、汇率与顺差的分析，探讨了中美贸易不平衡及人民币面临升值压力的原因，对美国长期纠缠的人民币汇率升值问题给予了有力回应，明确提出人民币汇率升值要反映中国经济发展的实际情况，过大过快升值只会给中国或世界经济带来灾难。本书在介绍中外有关人民币升值问题争论的基础上，提出了中国经济再平衡的三条路径：增加劳动者工资、人民币汇率升值和“渐进式增加工资+渐进式汇率升值”。并通过对三条路径的分析，提出了六大对冲机制：加快自主创新步伐、加快加工贸易模式转型、加快劳动密集型模式转型、加快资源密集型模式转型、要素价格市场化、加快人民币国际化。