全球价值链发展报告(2017)图书
Global Value Chain Development Report (2017): Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVCs on Economic Development
[内容简介] 全球价值链现象的重要性日益显现,这促使研究人员开发以增加值为基础的贸易统计数据,同时分析完整的生产过程是如何被分解为单个任务或阶段的。目前相关机构已公布了1995~2014年主要经济体之间的增加值贸易数据。《全球价值链发展报告(2017)》是对大量基于增加值贸易数据所做研究的综述,旨在向公众和政策制定者呈现只有从增加值和价值链角度才能看到的国际贸易所发生的本质上的重要变化。
相关信息
合作机构
附录
序一
序二
概要
一 全球价值链的数量描述
二 直至全球金融危机前,全球价值链一直在扩张
三 国内的分配影响
四 发展中国家在全球价值链中的参与度
五 单位劳动力成本和交易成本
六 全球价值链和“中等收入陷阱”
七 服务业和服务贸易限制
八 制度和深度贸易协定
九 走向更加包容的全球化
第一章 全球价值链分析框架:综述*
一 前言
二 全球价值链范式:新—新—新贸易理论?
三 全球价值链概念的发展
(一)经济体系中的分离现象:Baldwin的历史视角
(二)纵向整合
(三)价值链和全球价值链
(四)全球价值链的类型
四 经济建模
(一)生产过程的分节化机制
(二)离岸外包对国内收入和福利的影响
(三)企业对全球价值链组织形式的选择
五 实证研究的挑战
(一)通过企业业务统计数据描绘全球价值链
(二)通过投入产出表描绘全球价值链
(三)异质性的考量
(四)距离是重要的:价值链的“长度”分析
六 全球价值链研究展望
七 元方法论的考量
附录1.1 全球价值链分类
(一)市场型全球价值链
(二)模块型全球价值链
(三)关系型全球价值链
(四)俘获型全球价值链
(五)等级型全球价值链
附录1.2 生产序列的治理安排
第二章 全球贸易与全球价值链的近期发展趋势*
一 制造业产品的中间产品贸易与全球经济周期
二 识别国内增加值创造与最终产品生产中的全球价值链和非全球价值链活动
三 全球经济周期中的全球价值链生产活动
(一)各类增加值创造活动在全球经济周期中的占比变化
(二)各类增加值创造活动在全球经济周期中的增速变化
(三)全球金融危机后经济复苏中的全球生产新格局
(四)近期经济复苏阶段GDP增长缓慢的影响因素
(五)在金融危机后的经济复苏期,为何复杂的全球价值链跨境分工减少?
四 度量全球价值链中的微笑曲线:增加值和就业机会的创造与分配
(一)中国信息与通信技术业(ICT)出口的微笑曲线:增加值及工作机会的分配
(二)中国信息与通信技术业(ICT)出口的微笑曲线:演变规律
(三)价值链中的“倒转型”微笑曲线
(四)全球价值链中的劳动生产率和收入分配
五 总结
附录2.1 在中间品及最终品的全球价值链中转换角色
(一)东欧经济体对欧洲内部中间产品交易的影响增强
(二)墨西哥在北美自由贸易区制造业中间品区内贸易中的角色升级
(三)亚洲全球价值链的分工格局转变
附录2.2 国家/地区名称缩写对照表及部门编码表
第三章 从国内到区域再到全球:非洲工厂和拉丁美洲工厂?
一 升级的内涵
(一)功能升级
(二)产品升级
(三)流程升级
(四)跨产业升级
二 为增长而融入价值链:为出口而进口
(一)强劲的国内供应链和国际供应链推动出口增长
(二)并非所有因素对新兴经济体和发达经济体都有相同的作用
(三)并非所有因素对所有行业都有相同的影响
(四)国内供应链是提高全球价值链参与度的重要基础
三 区域价值链作为融入全球供应链的促成者
(一)区域内一体化程度不均:非洲和拉丁美洲很低
(二)低增加值的融入方式抑制经济趋同
(三)仍有促进区域内一体化的空间
(四)强化区域贸易协定
四 融入全球价值链和升级的国家经验:汽车行业
(一)定向项目
(二)横向战略
(三)支持上游供应链一体化的更广泛政策
(四)经济特区
五 结论
附录3.1 Kowalski & Lopez-Gonzales(2016)的结果、变量和数据来源
第四章 累积贸易成本及其对国内和国际价值链的影响*
一 关税、贸易成本叠加以及竞争力
(一)全球价值链下贸易成本的放大与累积
(二)交易成本和国内增加值
1.扩展的有效保护率和增加值的相对价格
2.对竞争力和出口导向型增长战略的影响
3.行业与国家的贸易成本
(三)加拿大和中国案例的应用与扩展
二 世界贸易网络中的贸易成本叠加
(一)贸易成本沿国际供应链的累积
(二)叠加成本和贸易便利化:国际贸易网络视角
三 总结
附录4.1 扩展有效保护率及增加值的相对价格
附录4.2 测量国际价值链长度以及跨境次数
第五章 “中等收入陷阱”和沿全球价值链升级
一 “中等收入陷阱”的定义及内涵
(一)“中等收入陷阱”是什么,是否真的存在?如果存在,应该如何衡量?
(二)已被识别出的造成“中等收入陷阱”的原因是什么,哪些国家会受到影响?
(三)经济体如何才能避免陷入“中等收入陷阱”?
二 全球价值链贸易对理解“中等收入陷阱”的作用
(一)参与全球价值链和经济升级概况
(二)融入全球价值链和“中等收入陷阱”的实证关系
(三)从全球价值链视角看收入收敛:引入企业视角
(四)在产业生产和工作迅速变化的背景下,参与全球价值链贸易
三 结论和政策影响
附录5.1 尝试量化“中等收入陷阱”
第六章 服务贸易和全球价值链*
一 服务在全球价值链中发挥什么作用?
(一)服务业的全球价值链
(二)服务在全球价值链中的连接作用
(三)服务在全球价值链中作为外包投入
(四)服务在全球价值链中作为内部投入
二 在全球价值链中如何测量服务的参与度
(一)增加值贸易统计涵盖了服务业在全球价值链中作为连接、外包投入和最终产品的作用
(二)现存增加值贸易统计数据无法完全反映跨境商业机构贸易
(三)服务在全球价值链中作为内部投入
三 全球价值链中服务的新兴模式
(一)全球价值链中服务的模式
1.服务在增加值贸易中的比例不仅很大而且持续上升
2.出口中所包含的服务推动服务贸易的比例增长
(二)出口中服务增加值的比例在不同国家间差别很大
(三)出口中服务增加值的比例在不同行业间差别也很大
(四)为什么服务增加值在出口中的比例不断上升?
(五)增加值分析的局限:内部服务在制造业中起很大作用
四 服务对全球价值链的意义
(一)对生产率的影响
(二)对比较优势的影响
(三)服务的直接和间接增加值出口
五 政策意义
(一)各国政策对国际服务贸易的壁垒
(二)国际合作和全球价值链中的服务贸易
(三)出口国承担监管责任的一个例子:数据流
六 结语
第七章 制度质量与全球价值链参与度
一 制度和全球价值链参与度
(一)行业证据
(二)企业层面证据:中国国内制度、企业以及城市特征
(三)邻国制度
二 非洲参与全球价值链
三 政策建议
附录7.1 Dollar、Ge和Yu(2016)以及Miranda和Wagner(2015)的研究结果
第八章 优惠贸易协定和全球价值链:理论、证据和开放性问题*
一 优惠贸易协定的演进
二 全球价值链和贸易协定的成因
三 深度协定是否推动全球价值链的发展?
四 全球价值链和优惠贸易协定的内容
五 全球价值链和优惠贸易协定伙伴的选择
六 深度协定与全球价值链关系的未来
七 结论
致谢
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