《国际经济分析与展望（2009～2010）》编委会

 编后记

 1 总报告

  全球经济复苏与展望

   第一部分 全球经济企稳回升

    一 多数经济体扭转了经济持续下降的态势

     （一）发达经济体纷纷扭转经济下降的态势

      1.美国经济触底反弹

      2.日本经济大幅下降后较强反弹

      3.欧元区经济步履蹒跚走出低谷，各国经济苦乐不均

      4.英国、瑞典、加拿大、澳大利亚表现不一

     （二）发展中经济体绩效差异明显，但总体上趋于好转

    二 通货紧缩趋势得到初步抑制，国际初级产品价格波动中回升

    三 主要经济体就业形势依然严峻

    四 国际贸易和外商直接投资乍暖还寒

     （一）国际贸易急剧萎缩，下降势头得到初步抑制

     （二）各国对外直接投资急剧萎缩，扭转下降势头尚需时日

   第二部分 国际协调合作呈现新气象

    一 国际宏观经济政策协调取得积极进展

    二 实现绿色复苏成为国际社会共同努力的方向

    三 新兴经济体在应对危机中发挥重要的作用

   第三部分 全球经济复苏曲折漫长

    一 经济增长呈现继续回升态势

     （一）宏观经济政策和信心增强将有利于经济继续回暖

      1.对世界经济的信心增强

      2.各国已经出台的宏观经济政策将对世界经济产生推动作用

      3.先行指标预示着世界经济将继续好转

     （二）多种不利因素使经济复苏道路曲折漫长

      1.失业率居高不下将延缓世界经济复苏进程

      2.金融机构信贷规模收缩拖延经济复苏进程

      3.缺少带动经济持续回升的新增长点

    二 2010年国际商品市场价格面临较大上涨压力

     1.目前货币乘数明显低于正常水平，但有可能较快恢复

     2.货币流通速度明显低于正常水平，但有可能逐渐恢复

     3.美元可能重新进入贬值阶段

     4.基数变化可能使得未来PPI的上涨速度较快

    三 就业状况难以明显好转，失业率将居高不下

     （一）产出缺口不会明显缩小，对就业的拉动作用不会明显增强

     （二）就业变化滞后于产出的变化

     （三）就业制度形成的工资刚性阻碍就业形势较快好转

     （四）大量失业者再就业需要一个培训和寻职的过程

    四 外贸和外商直接投资可能有所恢复，但恢复进程较慢

     （一）多种因素阻碍贸易的恢复

     （二）直接投资活动的恢复步履蹒跚

   第四部分 全面复苏尚需国际社会共同努力

    一 必须加快国际货币体系改革

    二 必须加强国际金融监管

    三 主要储备货币发行国家应保持币值的稳定

    四 必须旗帜鲜明地反对贸易保护主义

    五 必须做出更大努力进行发展模式的转变

    六 以应对气候变化为契机，创建世界经济增长的新动力

 2 国际经济专题研究

  本次金融危机的新特征

   一 本次金融危机的过程

   二 金融危机爆发的原因

   三 金融危机对世界经济的影响

    （一）经济增长大幅度减速

    （二）失业率上升

   四 本次金融危机的新特点

    （一）各国应对危机的措施力度空前

     1.美国

     2.中国

     3.欧盟

     4.日本

     5.印度、巴西和俄罗斯

    （二）各国政府联合共同刺激经济

    （三）发展中国家对世界的影响力增强

    （四）新能源、环保等产业备受关注

    （五）对稳步推进国际金融体系改革达成基本共识

  经济恢复期世界主要经济体宏观政策与各国协调

   一 金融危机中各国宏观政策取向

    （一）美国强调各国协同经济刺激政策恢复经济增长

    （二）欧盟强调国际金融改革与监管

    （三）新兴经济体寻求在国际经济中合理权益

   二 各国宏观政策分歧与协调

    （一）宏观政策分歧

     1.美国、欧盟之间的分歧

     2.新兴经济体与美国、欧盟之间的分歧

    （二）宏观政策协调

   三 金砖四国的政策协调

  国际金融监管的新发展

   一 金融监管历史的简单回顾

   二 本次金融危机给监管提出的新问题

    （一）如何协调金融创新和金融监管之间的矛盾

    （二）金融监管的底线是什么

    （三）如何防止金融危机在国际扩散

    （四）金融监管的顺周期性问题

    （五）如何构建金融监管的宏观审慎框架

   三 金融监管方向的新趋势

    （一）更严格和更大范围的监管

    （二）从规则监管（Rule-Based Regulation）到原则监管（Principle-Based Regulation）

    （三）加强宏观审慎性监管，增强央行监管地位，减少系统性风险

    （四）降低金融监管的顺周期性

   四 国际金融监管合作和协调的新趋势

   五 美国和欧盟的金融监管改革

    （一）美国的金融监管改革

    （二）欧盟的金融监管改革

  世界贸易发展的新趋势

   一 2008～2009年世界贸易状况

    （一）2008～2009年世界贸易概述

    （二）2008～2009年商品与服务贸易状况

   二 2010年世界贸易走势分析与预测

    （一）世界贸易增速下滑的原因分析

     1.需求大幅减少是贸易紧缩的主要原因

     2.资本信贷紧缩是限制贸易回暖的短期因素

     3.贸易摩擦不断并不能阻碍贸易的恢复

     4.全球供应链结构有所改变仅影响贸易过程

    （二）世界贸易走势分析与预测

   三 未来世界贸易新趋势与我国应对策略

    （一）世界贸易出现的新趋势

     1.区域化自由贸易投资协定走向务实

     2.贸易保护壁垒变得隐性和棘手

     3.世界贸易中纳入更多低碳要素

     4.多哈回合谈判的僵持近期将有所改观

     5.服务贸易所占比重将有大幅提高

     6.贸易融资朝着货币多元化和回归实体经济方向转变

    （二）我国对外贸易应对策略

     1.扩大紧需品进口，改善贸易的平衡状况

     2.加大出口结构调整力度，努力创造出口需求

     3.挖掘新的出口市场，培育新的经济增长点

  全球企业并购形势的回顾与展望

   一 全球企业并购概况

    （一）包括跨国并购在内的全球企业并购规模大幅下降

    （二）全球跨国直接投资规模也连续两年呈现下降形势

    （三）发达国家企业并购减少直接导致全球企业并购规模的下降

    （四）跨国公司对发展中国家投资多年增长的趋势出现逆转

    （五）资源开发、金融、制药及城市服务业成为企业并购的主要资金流向

    （六）中国国内并购受金融危机影响显著

   二 全球企业并购形势中一些值得关注的影响因素

    （一）世界经济形势迫使企业持谨慎的国际投资策略

    （二）全球企业整体盈利状况不佳

    （三）一些国家纷纷出台影响跨国投资的新政策

   三 中国企业海外并购的机遇与风险

    （一）2009年的海外投资状况

    （二）中国企业海外投资规模增长的客观必然性

    （三）中国企业海外投资的风险防范

    （四）难于界定的并购成功标准

   四 对2010年全球企业并购形势的展望

  全球绿色经济与新能源发展分析

   一 绿色观念的形成和绿色经济模式

    （一）绿色观念的形成

    （二）绿色经济模式

   二 全球绿色经济的发展现状和趋势

    （一）美国抢占“绿色”制高点

    （二）英国的绿色之路

    （三）韩国确立绿色发展战略目标

   三 全球新能源发展分析

    （一）全球绿色经济与新能源发展的关系

    （二）在全球绿色经济背景下，各国的新能源战略

     1.美国的新能源战略

     2.欧盟的新能源战略

     3.日本的新能源战略

   四 中国的绿色经济与新能源发展

  国际气候制度的资金机制及其趋势研究

   一 引言

    （一）研究背景

    （二）相关研究现状

   二 国际气候制度的形成及资金机制

    （一）国际气候制度的历史发展

     1.起步阶段：科学认识与公约形成

     2.推动阶段：艰难谈判与受挫补救

     3.突破阶段：《京都议定书》生效与后京都的博弈

    （二）国际气候制度的本质与影响因素

     1.国际气候制度的本质：公平与效率问题

     2.影响国际气候制度走向的关键因素

    （三）全球气候资金机制应以发达国家供资为主

   三 国际气候制度的资金机制现状分析

    （一）全球气候基金

    （二）全球CDM市场

   四 温室气体排放权的成本分担机制及改进

    （一）温室气体排放权框架

    （二）对温室气体排放权框架的改进

    （三）各国气候成本分担情况

   五 国际气候制度的资金机制新方向

   六 小结

  全球经济复苏中新兴经济体的地位和作用

   一 新兴经济体的内涵及特点

    （一）新兴经济体的内涵

    （二）新兴经济体的特点

   二 新兴经济体的历史与未来

    （一）新兴经济体的历史发展

     1.新兴经济体发展的第一个时期：原始资本积累期

     2.新兴经济体发展的第二个时期：自主发展期

    （二）新兴经济体发展的动力机制及其影响与发展趋势

   三 新兴经济体实力的现状及发展前景

    （一）新兴经济体实力的现状

    （二）新兴经济体实力的发展前景

   四 新兴经济体在全球经济复苏中的地位与作用

    （一）全球经济复苏的几种可能模式及其可行性评估

    （二）新兴经济体在全球经济复苏中的地位与作用

 3 主要经济体研究

  美国经济复苏展望

   一 近期美国经济运行情况

   二 美国经济复苏信号解读

    （一）经济景气指标从技术层面支持经济复苏的判断

    （二）政策短期效应放大了复苏信号

    （三）未来的经济回暖缺乏有力支撑

   三 美国应对危机的政策动向

    （一）货币政策

     1.关于货币政策的退出方式和时机

     2.货币政策近期将有退有进

     3.各界对货币政策的评论

    （二）财政政策

     1.关于财政政策退出方式和时机

     2.财政刺激有增无减

     3.各界对财政政策的评论

    （三）政策调整的复杂性

     1.美国宏观政策中的有进有退

     2.市场对政府刺激政策已相当依赖

     3.“弱复苏”决定了“慢退出”

     4.稳步退出的前提是结构性改革

   四 美国经济复苏面临的挑战

    （一）经济运行仍有重大隐患

    （二）巨额财政赤字使美元贬值压力不断加大

    （三）全球范围的退出难以同步

     1.全球范围内复苏的不平衡性

     2.退出不同步加剧围绕美元的投机风潮

   五 2009年美国经济走势及2010年经济预测

   六 美国经济复苏缓慢对中国经济的影响

  2009年欧元区经济分析及2010年展望

   一 2009年欧元区经济回顾

    （一）金融危机给欧元区经济带来严峻挑战

    （二）经济刺激政策效果明显，经济出现V型复苏

    （三）先行指标表明欧元区经济形势可能持续好转

   二 2010年欧元区经济展望

    （一）欧元区将维持宽松的货币政策走向

    （二）保持财政可持续是欧元区各国的重要任务

    （三）2010年欧元区经济将维持低速增长态势

   三 对欧元区经济发展的两点评价

    （一）刚性制度带来经济稳定但制约经济增长

    （二）欧元发行十年来总体上比较成功

  2009年日本经济回顾与2010年展望

   一 2009年日本经济复苏受需求增长和政府刺激效果的共同驱动

    （一）国际金融危机对日本金融市场的影响

    （二）国际金融危机对日本实体经济的影响

    （三）出口和消费的回暖与政策效用共同推动日本经济触底回升

   二 未来日本经济将保持缓慢复苏，但不排除环比增速下滑的可能

    （一）外围经济环境影响加大，出口有望继续增长

    （二）内需短期内有望继续改善

    （三）财政状况严峻，政策作用空间有限

    （四）就业状况将继续恶化

    （五）工业生产有望继续增长

   三 防通缩抑升值，金融市场动荡加剧

    （一）通缩成为拖累日本经济复苏的重要因素，短期内不会消失

    （二）未来将继续维持超低利率以支持经济复苏

    （三）汇率市场波动较大，日元可能继续维持强势

    （四）股票市场大幅震荡，未来日本股市有望走强

  国际金融危机中俄罗斯经济的衰退与复苏*

   一 国际金融危机和油价暴跌重创俄罗斯经济

    （一）国际金融危机对俄罗斯金融体系的冲击

    （二）国际金融危机对俄罗斯实体经济的影响

   二 推出救市措施和反危机计划，但2009年俄经济仍陷入深度衰退

    （一）推出救市措施和大规模反危机计划

    （二）2009年俄罗斯经济陷入深度衰退

   三 2010年俄罗斯经济预测与前景分析

    （一）经济呈现缓慢增长，既有风险也在持续发展

    （二）进一步稳定金融业，并逐渐将反危机措施重心从金融系统转向实体经济

    （三）改变以出口原材料为导向的经济增长模式，加速经济现代化进程

 4 区域经济研究

  亚洲经济复苏的前景*

   一 国际金融危机中的亚洲经济

   二 亚洲经济率先复苏的原因

   三 亚洲经济复苏的前景

   四 后危机时代亚洲经济面临的挑战

  国际金融危机背景下拉美经济形势分析与展望

   一 国际金融危机对拉美经济的影响渠道

    （一）全球经济衰退将使拉美地区的出口需求全面萎缩

    （二）初级产品价格急剧下挫，将持续恶化2009年拉美地区的贸易条件

    （三）金融危机后国际资本出现恐慌性外逃，给拉美金融体系造成巨大压力

    （四）短期内主权债务风险急剧上升，国际融资环境急剧恶化，长期影响基本稳定

    （五）金融危机短期传染效应明显，但长期影响不大

   二 2009年拉美应对金融危机的经济政策综述

   三 2009年拉美经济形势：全面衰退已定，复苏迹象已现

    （一）墨西哥经济全面大幅度衰退，复苏的基础十分脆弱

    （二）巴西经济形势基本稳定，成为地区经济复苏主要动力

    （三）阿根廷经济正经历“二次探底”过程

    （四）智利、委内瑞拉等其他拉美国家经济形势

   四 拉美地区经济展望：机遇与挑战

    （一）当前拉美各国应对危机的有利条件

     1.稳健的宏观经济政策框架：严格的财政纪律和通货膨胀目标制货币政策

     2.2003～2007年经济增长周期中宏观经济脆弱性指标全面改善

     3.拉美地区债务结构全面优化

    （二）拉美地区经济复苏可能面临的潜在风险

     1.拉美部分国家持有大量的美元资产面临着较大的贬值风险

     2.财政赤字和通货膨胀压力重现

     3.部分国家的到期债务规模依然庞大

    （三）拉美未来经济形势展望

  金融危机背景下非洲经济发展现状及展望

   一 金融危机对非洲经济的影响

   二 非洲积极应对金融危机

   三 国际社会的援助

   四 对2010年非洲经济的展望

 5 CCIEE指数

  世界经济景气指数简介

   一 构成国家的选择

   二 指标的选择

   三 循环基准的确定

   四 编制的基本方法

   五 世界经济综合景气指数的初步结果及其简要分析

  CCIEE大宗商品价格指数开发研究

   一 国内外大宗商品指数发展演变

    （一）国际重要大宗商品指数

     1.商品研究局（CRB）指数

     2.道琼斯-AIG商品指数（DJ-AIG）

     3.高盛商品指数（GSCI）和标普GSCI商品指数

     4.罗杰斯世界商品指数（RICI）

     5.德意志银行流通商品指数（DBLCI）

    （二）国内重要大宗商品价格指数

     1.第一财经·南华商品期货指数

     2.中国大宗商品价格指数

     3.中期商品指数

     4.高盛中国商品指数

   二 CCIEE大宗商品价格指数设计思路

    （一）指数编制的出发点

    （二）指数的商品品种遴选原则

    （三）指数权重的分布原则

    （四）单个商品指数设计

     1.商品价格计算方案

     2.单项商品指数设计

    （五）综合商品指数设计

     1.算术加权计算方法

     2.派氏计算公式

     3.分类指数设计

    （六）指数的基期选取

   三 CCIEE大宗商品价格指数实证检验

    （一）数据检验

     1.CCIEE大宗商品价格指数（综合）

     2.CCIEE大宗商品分类价格指数

    （二）合理性检验

   四 CCIEE大宗商品价格指数的拓展研究

   附录

  CCIEE-上海交大全球航运景气指数

   一 上海航运指数产生的历史背景

   二 指数的编制

    1.理论基础

    2.算法：指数及权重

    3.相关数据的采集

   三 指数的计算结果及分析

    1.总体计算结果

    2.指数分析

   四 结语

 1 General Report

  Global Economy Recovery and Outlook

   Part Ⅰ Global Economy Has Started Its Recovery

    A. Most economies have reversed the continued economic decline

     1. Developed economies have reversed the continued economic decline

      1）America’s economy has reached the bottom and begun to rebound.

      2）Strong rebound of Japanese economy after violent decrease.

      3）Euro-zone economy has bounced back but each country is in a different situation.

      4）Britain，Sweden，Canada and Australia are all in different situations.

     2. Despite obvious difference of performance between developing economies the overall situation is getting better

    B. Deflation has been inhibited initially and the price of international primary products rebounds in fluctuation

    C. The employment issue of major economies is still critical

    D. International trade and foreign direct investment are fluctuating between hopes and fears

     1. International trade shrinks sharply and the descending trend has been inhibited initially

     2. The overseas direct investment in each country shrinks sharply，and it needs time to reverse the descending trend

   Part Ⅱ International Coordination and Cooperation Presents a New Look

    A. The coordination of international macro-economic policy is progressing positively

    B. Realizing green recovery becomes the common direction pursued by the international community

    C. Emerging economies play a more important role in coping with crisis

   Part Ⅲ Long and Tortuous Recovery of the Global Economy

    A. Economic growth shows an upward trend

     1. Macro-economic policy and increased confidence are conducive to continued recovery

      1）Increased confidence to world economy.

      2）The macro-economic policy promulgated by each country will push the world economy.

      3）Leading indicators indicate that the world economy will continue to be better.

     2. Many adverse factors make the road of economic recovery long and tortuous

      1）High unemployment rate will retard the progress of world economic recovery.

      2）Credit scale shrinking in financial institutions retards the process of economic recovery.

      3）Lack of new growth points driving the continuous economic recovery.

    B. The international commodity market prices will rise in 2010

     1）Currently the money multiplier is obviously lower than normal，but there might be a dramatic change.

     2）Money circulation velocity is obviously lower than normal，but there might be a dramatic change.

     3）U.S. dollar exchange rate may return to the devaluation phase.

     4）The change of base number will accelerate the future PPI rise.

    C. Employment situation is hard to be better and the unemployment rate will still be high

     1. Output gap will not become smaller obviously and the driving force for employment will not be strengthened significantly

     2. The employment change falls behind the output change

     3. Wage rigidity formed by employment system hinders the rapid recovery of employment situation

     4. A process of training and job seeking is required for large numbers of unemployed persons

    D. Foreign trade and foreign investment may be restored but with slow process

     1. There are many factors hindering the restoration of trade

     2. Restoration of direct investment activities with difficulties

   Part Ⅳ Full Recovery Needs Joint Efforts by the International Community

    A. International currency system reform must be accelerated

    B. International financial supervision must be intensified

    C. Major reserve currency issuing country should keep the currency value stable

    D. Trade protectionism must be opposed

    E. More efforts should be made to adjust the development mode

    F. Taking the climate change as an opportunity to create new impetus for world economic growth

 2 Special Topics

  New Features of the Financial Crisis

   Ⅰ Outbreak and Spread of the Financial Crisis

   Ⅱ Causes of Outbreak of the Financial Crisis

   Ⅲ Impacts of the Financial Crisis on World Economy

    A. The economic growth slowed sharply

    B. Growing unemployment rate

   Ⅳ New Features of the Financial Crisis

    A. Unprecedented measures are taken to deal with the crisis

     1. United States

     2. China

     3. European Union

     4. Japan

     5. India，Brazil and Russia

    B. All countries joint hands to fuel the economy

    C. Developing countries become more influential to the world

    D. More importance is attached to the industries such as new energy and environmental protection

    E. A basic consensus has been reached on steadily promoting international financial system reform

  Macro-Economic Policies and Coordination Among Major Economic Entities During Economic Recovery

   Ⅰ Macro-economic Policy Orientations of the States in the Financial Crisis

    A. America stresses on concerted economic stimulus policies to recover economic growth

    B. EU stresses international financial reform and regulation

    C. Emerging economies seek for reasonable rights and interests in the international economic arena

   Ⅱ Divergence of Macro Policies of the States and Coordination

    1. Macro policy divergence

     1）Divergence between the US and the EU.

     2）Divergence between emerging economies and the US and the EU.

    2. Macro policy coordination

   Ⅲ Coordination of Policies of the BRICs

  New Development in International Financial Regulation

   Introduction

   Ⅰ Brief Review on Financial Regulation History

   Ⅱ New Problems with Regulation Brought by the Financial Crisis

    1. Contradiction of coordination between financial innovation and financial regulation

    2. Bottom-line of financial regulation

    3. Prevent the financial crisis from spreading internationally

    4. Pro-cyclicality of financial regulation

    5. Establishment of macro prudential framework for financial regulation

   Ⅲ New Tendency in Financial Regulation

    1. More stringent and extensive regulation scope

    2. From rule-based regulation to principle-based regulation

    3. Enhance macro-prudential regulation，reinforce regulatory position of the central bank and reduce systematic risks

    4. Reduce pro-cyclicality of financial regulation

   Ⅳ New Tendency of Cooperation and Coordination on International Financial Regulation

   Ⅴ Financial Regulatory Reform in the US and EU

    1. Financial regulatory reform in the US

    2. Financial regulatory reform in the EU

  New Trends of World Trade Development

   I. World Trade in 2008 and 2009

    A. An Overview of world trade in 2008 and 2009

    B. Goods and services trade in 2008 and 2009

   Ⅱ Forecast and Analysis of the Trend of the World Trade in 2010

    A. Reasons for the shrinking growth rate of the world trade

     1. The sharp decline of demand is the major reason for the shrinking trade

     2. Capital credit crunch can only restrain world trade in the short term

     3. The continuous trade barriers can not impede the recovery of trade

     4. The structural change of the global supply chain can influence only the trading process

    B. Forecast and analysis of the trend of world trade

   Ⅲ New Trend of World Trade in the Future and China’s Strategies

    A. Some new trends in the development world trade

     1. Investment agreements of regional free trade become more pragmatic

     2. Trade barriers have become unapparent and difficult

     3. More low-carbon elements have been considered in world trade

     4. The deadlock in the Doha Round of trade talks will be alleviated in the near future

     5. The proportion of service trade will increase significantly

     6. Trade finance is transforming to currency diversification and return to real economy

    B. Adjusting strategies of Chinese foreign trade

     1. Enlarge shortage goods imports and improve the trade balance

     2. Strengthen the adjustment of economic structure and try to create exports demand

     3. Develop new export markets and cultivate new economic growth points

  Retrospect and Prospect of Global M & A Situation

   Ⅰ Overview of Global M & A

    1. Scale of global M & A including cross-border M & A plummets

    2. Global FDI has also declined for two consecutive years

    3. The decrease of M & A in the developed nations directly results in the decline of global M & A scale

    4. The trend of increasing investment in developing countries by MNC for years appears to reverse

    5. The M & A funds mainly flow to the resource development，financial，pharmaceutical and urban service industries

    6. China’s domestic M & A are significantly affected by the financial crisis

   Ⅱ Some Influencing Factors Worthy of Attention in Global M & A Situation

    1. The world economic situation forces companies to take a cautious strategy of international investment

    2. The overall corporate profitability is not good worldwide

    3. Some countries have successively promulgated new policies to affect the transnational investment

   Ⅲ Opportunity and Risk for Chinese Companies to Conduct Overseas M & A

    1. Status of overseas investment in 2009

    2. Objective necessity of growth of chinese companies’ overseas investment size

    3. Risk prevention for chinese companies’ overseas investment

    4. Difficult to define the success criteria for mergers and acquisitions

   Ⅳ Prospect of Global M & A Situation in 2010

  Analysis of Global Green Economy and New Energy Development

   Ⅰ The Formation of Green Ideas and Green Economic Mode

    A. The formation of green ideas

    B. Green economic mode

   Ⅱ The Status and Trends of Global Green Economy

    A. The United States seizes the “green” high ground

     1. Green air

     2. Green agriculture

     3. Green cars

     4. Green buildings

     5. Green power

    B. The green road of Britain

    C. South Korea’s green development strategy

   Ⅲ Analysis of the Global New Energy Sources

    A. The relationship of global green economy and new energy development

    B. New energy strategies on the background of global green economy

     1. New energy strategy of the United States

     2. Energy policy of the European Union（EU）

     3. New energy strategy of Japan

   Ⅳ The Development of Green Economy and New Energy in China

  Funding Mechanisms in the International Climate Change Architecture

   Ⅰ Introduction

    A. Research background

    B. Current related research

   Ⅱ Formation of the International Climate Change Architecture and Funding Mechanisms

    A. Historical development of the international climate change architecture

     1. Initial stages：scientific recognition and the forming of a convention

     2. Gathering pace：difficult negotiations and frustrating remedies

     3. Breakthrough stage：Kyoto Protocol comes into force and the post-Kyoto game

    B. International climate change architecture：essential and influencing factors

     1. The essence of international climate change architecture：questions of equity and effectiveness

     2. Key factors influencing the orientation of international climate change architecture

     3. Climate change financial mechanisms should be mainly supported by developed countries

   Ⅲ Analysis of the Current Situation of International Climate Change Financial Mechanisms

    A. Global climate change funds

    B. The global CDM market

   Ⅳ Greenhouse Development Rights：Cost-sharing Mechanism and Improvements

    A. The Greenhouse Development Rights framework

    B. Suggested improvements for the GDRs framework

    C. Share of costs for different countries

   Ⅴ A New Proposal for Global Climate Change Funding Mechanism

   Ⅵ Summary

  Status and Role of Emerging Economies in the Global Economic Recovery

   Ⅰ Connotations and Characteristics of Emerging Economies

    A. Connotations of emerging economies

    B. Characteristics of emerging economies

   Ⅱ The Past and Future of the Emerging Economies

    A. Historical development of emerging economies

    B. The drive mechanism，influence and development trend of the development of emerging economies

   Ⅲ Status Quo and Development Outlook of Strength of Emerging Economies

    A. Status quo of strength of emerging economies

    B. Development outlook of strength of emerging economies

   Ⅳ Status and Role of Emerging Economies in Global Economic Recovery

    A. Several possible modes of global economic recovery and their feasibility assessment

    B. Status and role of emerging economies in the global economic recovery

 3 National Reports

  Outlook for US Economic Recovery

   Ⅰ Recent Economic Performance of the US

   Ⅱ Interpretation of the Signal of US Economic Recovery

    A. Economic leading indicators technically support the judgment of economic recovery

    B. The short-term effect of policies amplified the recovery signal

    C. Further economic recovery has no solid support

   Ⅲ US Policies in Response to the Crisis

    A. Monetary policy

     1. Way and timing for the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy

     2. Monetary policy will advance in some aspects while withdrawing from others in the near future

     3. Comments of all circles on the monetary policy

    B. Fiscal policy

     1. Way and timing for the withdrawal of fiscal bailout

     2. Fiscal bailout measures continued to increase

     3. Comments of all circles on the fiscal policy

    C. Complexity of policy adjustment

     1. Advance and withdrawal of US macro-economic policies

     2. Market has been seriously dependent on the government’s bailout policy

     3. “Weak recovery” determines the “slow exit”

     4. Structural reform is the precondition to stable exit

   Ⅳ Challenges Ahead for the US Economic Recovery

    A. Hidden dangers still accompany US economy

    B. Huge fiscal deficit continuously increases pressure on US dollar collapse

    C. Difficulty in synchronizing worldwide exits

     1. Imbalances of recovery across the globe

     2. Unsynchronized exits aggravate the speculative activities against the US dollar

   Ⅴ US Economic Trend in 2009 and Economic Forecast for 2010

   Ⅵ Impact of Weak Economic Recovery of US on Chinese Economy

  Economic Analysis and Outlook of the Euro Area

   Ⅰ Economic Performance of the Euro Area in 2009

    A. The financial crisis poses challenge to the Euro Area economy

    B. Stimulus policies worked well to bring about a V-shaped recovery

    C. Leading indicators indicate sustainable improvement of Euro Area economy

   Ⅱ Outlook of the Euro Area Economy in 2010

    A. The Euro Area will maintain an easy monetary policy

    B. It is important for Euro Area countries to keep the continuity of fiscal policy

    C. The Euro Area will maintain slow economic growth in the next year

   Ⅲ Evaluations of the Euro Area Economy

    A. Rigid system stabilizes the economy but restricts its growth

    B. The Euro has achieved success in the past 10 years

  Japan Economic Review and Outlook

   Introduction

   Ⅰ Japan’s Economic Recovery in 2009 Is Driven by Increased Demands and Policy Stimulus

    A. Impact of the global financial crisis on Japan’s financial market

    B. Impact of the global financial crisis on Japan’s real economy

    C. Improvement of export and consumption work together with policy stimulus to promote Japan’s economic recovery

   Ⅱ Japan’s Economy Is Likely to Slowly Recover but the Possibility of a Deceleration in Its Growth Remains

    A. Export is likely to sustain positive growth with the recovery of external economic environment

    B. Domestic demands will continue to improve for the short run

    C. The pressure on fiscal conditions limits the functioning of policies

    D. The pressure on employment will intensify

    E. Industrial production is expected to maintain sustainable growth

   Ⅲ Prevent Deflation and Curb JPY Appreciation Against Intensifying Fluctuations on the Financial Market

    A. Deflation is to be blamed for dragging Japan’s economic recovery and it won’t disappear for the short run

    B. Japan will maintain an ultra-low interest rate to support economic recovery

    C. As the foreign exchange market fluctuates，Japanese Yen is likely to remain strong

    D. Japan’s stock market is likely to rebound with the fluctuations of global stock markets

  Recession and Recovery of Russian Economy under the International Financial Crisis*

   Ⅰ Both the International Financial Crisis and the Sharp Drop in International Oil Price Severely Damaged Russian Economy

    A. The impact on the financial system caused by the international financial crisis

    B. The influence of the international financial crisis on Russian real economy

   Ⅱ In Spite of the Market Rescue Measure and Anti-crisis Plans，the Russian Economy Recessed Deeply in 2009

    A. Carrying out market rescue measure and large-scale anti-crisis plans

    B. Russian economy fell into deep recession in 2009

   Ⅲ Economic Forecast and Prospect of Russia in 2010

    A. Economy grows slowly，but risks develop as well

    B. To stabilize the financial sector further and transform the focus of anti-crisis measures to the real economy instead of the financial system

    C. To change the raw materials export-oriented model of economic growth and accelerate the process of economic modernization

 4 Area Reports

  Outlook for Asia Economic Recovery*

   Ⅰ Development of Asia Economy at the Stage of International Financial Crisis

   Ⅱ Reasons for Leading Recovery of Asia Economy

   Ⅲ Outlook for Asia Economic Recovery

   Ⅳ Challenges Faced by Asia Economy at Post-Crisis Time

  Latin American Economic Situation and Outlook

   Ⅰ Impacts on Latin American Economy by the Global Financial Crisis

    A. The global economic recession makes Latin American export shrinks sharply

    B. Commodity prices dropped sharply，which will continuously deteriorate the terms of trade in Latin America in 2009

    C. Due to the outbreak of the financial crisis，international capital flew out with panic and brought great pressure on Latin American financial system

    D. In short term，the sovereign debt risk increased rapidly and the international financing environment deteriorated sharply，but in the long term，the impact was gradually stable

    E. The contagion effects of financial crisis are obvious in the short term but little in the long term

   Ⅱ The Overview of Latin American Economic Policies in 2009 in Response to the Financial Crisis

   Ⅲ Latin American Economy in 2009：Full Recession Has Been Certain and Signs of Recovery Have Already Appeared

    A. Mexican economy dropped significantly and the base of recovery is fragile

    B. Brazilian economy is basically stable，and becomes the main driving force for economic recovery in the whole region

    C. The economy of Argentina is undergoing a “second bottom” process

    D. Economic situation of Chile，Venezuela and other Latin American countries

   Ⅳ The Outlook of Latin American Economy：Chances and Challenges

    A. Current advantages in Latin America against the financial crisis

     1. Sound macroeconomic policy framework：the strict fiscal discipline and inflation targeting monetary policy

     2. The macroeconomic vulnerability indicators had improved in general in the economic growth cycle from 2003 to 2007

     3. The debt structure in Latin America has been fully optimized

    B. Potential risks in the economic recovery in Latin America

     1. The large amount of dollar-denominated assets held by some Latin American countries face great risks of devaluation

     2. Pressures for fiscal deficits and inflation recurrence

     3. Due debt in some countries is still large

    C. The outlook of Latin American economy

  Status Quo and Prospect of Africa’s Economic Development

   Ⅰ Impact of Financial Crisis on African Economy

    1. Impact of financial crisis on the countries taking energy and mineral industry as pillar industry

    2. Impact of the financial crisis on the countries taking tourism as their pillar industry

   Ⅱ Proactive Response to the Financial Crisis

   Ⅲ Assistance from the International Community

    A. In the international community，international organizations and major countries have provided assistance to Africa to help it get out of the dilemma

    B. China，as a traditionally friendly country of Africa，is actively promoting Sino-Africa relationship and assistance to Africa

   Ⅳ Outlook for African Economy in 2010

 5 CCIEE Indices

  Brief Introduction to World Economy Prosperity Index

   Ⅰ Selection of Countries

   Ⅱ Selection of Indices

   Ⅲ Determination of Benchmark Cycle

   Ⅳ Fundamental Method Adopted

   Ⅴ Preliminary Results on the Comprehensive Prosperity Index of World Economy and Brief Analysis on the Results

  CCIEE Commodity Price Index*

   Ⅰ Evolvement of International and Domestic Commodity Price Indices

    A. International commodity price indices

     1. Commodity Research Bureau（CRB）Index

     2. Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index（DJ-AIGCI）

     3. Goldman Sachs Commodity Index（GSCI）and S&P GSCI Commodity Index

     4. Rogers International Commodity Index（RICI）

     5. Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index（DBLCI）

    B. Domestic commodity price indices

     1. Nanhua Futures Index（NFI）

     2. China Commodity Price Index

     3. CIFCO Commodity Index

     4. Goldman Sachs China Commodity Index（GSCCI）

   Ⅱ Design of CCIEE Commodity Price Index

    A. Basis of the index

    B. Principle on commodity selection

    C. Principle on weight assignment

    D. Design of single commodity index

     1. Calculation of commodity prices

     2. Design of single commodity price index

    E. Design of comprehensive commodity index

     1. Arithmetic weighted method

     2. Paasche Formula

     3. Design of specific indices

    F. Selection of base period

   Ⅲ Empirical Testing of CCIEE Commodity Price Index

    A. Data testing

     1. CCIEE Commodity Price Index（Comprehensive）

     2. Specific indices of CCIEE Commodity Price Index

    B. Soundness testing

   Ⅳ Expansionary Study of CCIEE Commodity Price Index

   Appendix

  CCIEE-SJTU Global Shipping Prosperity Index

   Ⅰ Background

   Ⅱ Construction of SSI

    A. Theoretical foundation

    B. The algorithm：components and weighting scheme

    C. Data collection

   Ⅲ Computational Results and Their Analysis

    A. The general result

    B. Analysis of the results

   Ⅳ Conclusions

本书是由中国国际经济交流中心（CCIEE)研究人员、国内著名智库的专家学者共同撰写的，是对世界经济2009年运行状况和2010年走势进行分析与展望的研究成果。这本书是集体智慧的结晶，充分体现了CCIEE“创新、求实、睿智、兼容”的理念。本书的创新之处在于，我们研制开发了分析与评价世界经济运行与发展的三个重要指数：CCIEE世界经济景气指数、CCIEE国际大宗商品价格指数和CCIEE—上海交大全球航运景气指数，并运用这些指数跟踪分析和评价世界经济运行状况。这三个指数应当说都是大胆的尝试，反映了CCIEE成立近一年来的重要研究成果。