中国:未来二十年的改革与发展图书
China:The Next 20 Years of Reform and Development
[内容简介] 过去30年,中国在经济改革和对外开放方面取得了巨大成就,从而成为世界上举足轻重的一个经济体。不过,在改革与发展的进程中,仍然存在许多没有解决的问题,也会面临诸多新的挑战。本书旨在关注以下问题:中国如何深化要素市场等颇具争议的领域的改革;如何改革汇率体制和医疗卫生体系,同时,这些改革需要有强有力且高效的配套政策措施,中国才可能应对一系列挑战。这些挑战包括:如何应对劳动力无限供给时代的结束;如何在减少全球贸易失衡中担当建设性的角色;如何提高企业的创新能力;如何应归史无前例的移民、城市化和社会不平等问题;以及如何在低碳发展成为唯一路径的条件下,解决能源和金属使用量增长带来的排放问题。
相关信息
作者
第一篇 长远发展:趋势与问题
第一章 中国的经济改革与发展:成就、挑战与未完成的任务
第二章 中国经济发展的转折期:一个概念性框架和新的实证证据
劳动力过剩的经济
转折点
典型的劳动力过剩模型在现实世界中的变动
2006年中国进入转折期的证据
2010年的证据
转折点对于中国经济发展的影响
致谢
第三章 中国模式及其前景*
华盛顿共识的例证
中性政府
展望未来
致谢
第四章 中央与地方关系如何演进:一个分析框架及其含义
引言
政府间关系:简要的文献回顾
一个新的分析框架
中国政府间关系:过去与现状
中央和省级政府间关系
省—地方政府间关系
中国政府间关系的未来的几种演进路径
第一种演进结果:结构三
第二种演进结果:结构一(Ⅰ),即好的市场经济
第三种演进结果:结构一(Ⅱ),即坏的市场经济
第四种演进结果:结构三(中央—省)+结构一(省—县—乡)
结论与政策建议
第五章 从国际比较的视角看中国的人均钢铁消费及其预测
引言
KCS曲线和相关理论
现存的理论及我们对它的扩展
“库兹涅茨曲线”指标和一些方法上的考虑
模型说明及估计策略
模型说明
数据描述
估算结果与预测
预测实例:中国的钢铁需求和经济发展
对预测的讨论
结论
鸣谢
第六章 评估中国的能源节约和碳排放强度:如何使未来有别于过去?
引言
提高能源效率减少污染
可再生能源的利用
中国提出的碳排放强度目标:雄心勃勃还是毫无新意?
中国的能源和GDP统计数据的可靠性问题
中央与地方的关系,节能与减排
结论
第七章 缩小中国地区间差距的前景
引言
地区快照
近期工业发展趋势
乐观的原因
悲观的原因
结论
第二篇 全球化:挑战与机遇
第八章 汇率政策及宏观调控
中国的汇率政策及其对美元的意义
中国立场
政策备选方案
西方国家的顾虑
价格扭曲和全球再平衡
中国与美元的未来
未来20年的挑战
第九章 实际汇率和人民币
引言
1994~2004年之谜
可贸易商品的一价定律
劳动套利
封闭的资本账户*
2004年以后的实际汇率升值
逐渐减少的经常账户盈余
逐渐增加的寡头垄断租金
贸易改革的放缓
逐渐上升的相对工资成本
宏观经济政策和人民币
储备积累和货币重商主义
流动性和冻结
放松资本管制的效果
单边升值的情况
通过货币紧缩升值
贸易征税
结论
致谢
第十章 中国和东亚贸易:脱钩谬误、危机和政策挑战
危机前贸易模式
东亚贸易中的中国
区域内贸易模式
全球金融危机之后的贸易表现
政策选项
结论
第十一章 亚洲外国直接投资和“中国效应”
引言
中国FDI流入的增长
分析框架和实证模型
假说
市场规模和东道国经济体的经济增长
东道国经济体的要素成本
国家风险(国家信用评级)
实证模型和变量设定
回归结果和解释
中国和亚洲经济体未来FDI流入的意涵
结论
第十二章 全球金融危机与农村劳动力向城市迁移
早期的研究发现以及我们的假设
数据
全球金融危机对劳动力市场的影响结果:城市视角
全球金融危机对劳动力市场的影响结果:农村视角
结论
第三篇 政策与改革:未完成的任务
第十三章 避免中国在走向繁荣的路上出现经济崩溃
引言
中国走向繁荣的崎岖道路
潜在的硬件故障
潜在的软件故障
增长动力不足的问题
为避免在通往繁荣的路上崩溃而应该遵循的改革议程
解决潜在的硬件故障
解决潜在的软件故障
解决环境退化导致的动力不足问题
解决贸易保护主义导致的经济动力不足问题
结论
第十四章 成本扭曲与中国的结构失衡
一 引言
二 中国结构失衡的表现
三 过去的政策努力
四 要素成本扭曲
五 结束语
第十五章 从农民工到市民:中国特色的深度城市化
一 引言
二 农民工进城的不可逆转性
三 “托达罗教条”的终结
四 公共服务均等化的条件
五 结语
第十六章 自主创新促进可持续发展
引言
中国的创新能力及所取得的成绩
企业层面的创新
国际视角
对未来经济增长的启示
结论
第十七章 中国医疗卫生体制与未来20年改革
导言
中国医疗卫生领域发展的历史
公社的终结与社会化医疗
结构性问题
中国医疗领域内的恶性循环
通过保险打破恶性循环
改革有效性
需方战略与结构性问题
结构性问题如何阻碍改革
动机缺陷也阻碍供方改革
2009年4月医疗改革
前景与总结
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