篇章数

17

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0 !

参考文献

481

中国:未来二十年的改革与发展图书

China:The Next 20 Years of Reform and Development

SSAPID:101-1916-1917-52
ISBN:978-7-5097-1939-8
DOI:
ISSN:

[内容简介] 过去30年,中国在经济改革和对外开放方面取得了巨大成就,从而成为世界上举足轻重的一个经济体。不过,在改革与发展的进程中,仍然存在许多没有解决的问题,也会面临诸多新的挑战。本书旨在关注以下问题:中国如何深化要素市场等颇具争议的领域的改革;如何改革汇率体制和医疗卫生体系,同时,这些改革需要有强有力且高效的配套政策措施,中国才可能应对一系列挑战。这些挑战包括:如何应对劳动力无限供给时代的结束;如何在减少全球贸易失衡中担当建设性的角色;如何提高企业的创新能力;如何应归史无前例的移民、城市化和社会不平等问题;以及如何在低碳发展成为唯一路径的条件下,解决能源和金属使用量增长带来的排放问题。

相关信息

丛书名:“中国经济前沿”丛书
编 辑:恽薇
出版社:社会科学文献出版社
出版时间: 2010年12月
语 种:中文
中图分类:F0 经济学

 作者

 第一篇 长远发展:趋势与问题

  第一章 中国的经济改革与发展:成就、挑战与未完成的任务

  第二章 中国经济发展的转折期:一个概念性框架和新的实证证据

   劳动力过剩的经济

   转折点

   典型的劳动力过剩模型在现实世界中的变动

   2006年中国进入转折期的证据

   2010年的证据

   转折点对于中国经济发展的影响

   致谢

  第三章 中国模式及其前景*

   华盛顿共识的例证

   中性政府

   展望未来

   致谢

  第四章 中央与地方关系如何演进:一个分析框架及其含义

   引言

   政府间关系:简要的文献回顾

   一个新的分析框架

   中国政府间关系:过去与现状

    中央和省级政府间关系

    省—地方政府间关系

   中国政府间关系的未来的几种演进路径

    第一种演进结果:结构三

    第二种演进结果:结构一(Ⅰ),即好的市场经济

    第三种演进结果:结构一(Ⅱ),即坏的市场经济

    第四种演进结果:结构三(中央—省)+结构一(省—县—乡)

   结论与政策建议

  第五章 从国际比较的视角看中国的人均钢铁消费及其预测

   引言

   KCS曲线和相关理论

    现存的理论及我们对它的扩展

    “库兹涅茨曲线”指标和一些方法上的考虑

   模型说明及估计策略

    模型说明

    数据描述

    估算结果与预测

    预测实例:中国的钢铁需求和经济发展

    对预测的讨论

   结论

   鸣谢

  第六章 评估中国的能源节约和碳排放强度:如何使未来有别于过去?

   引言

   提高能源效率减少污染

   可再生能源的利用

   中国提出的碳排放强度目标:雄心勃勃还是毫无新意?

   中国的能源和GDP统计数据的可靠性问题

   中央与地方的关系,节能与减排

   结论

  第七章 缩小中国地区间差距的前景

   引言

   地区快照

   近期工业发展趋势

   乐观的原因

   悲观的原因

   结论

 第二篇 全球化:挑战与机遇

  第八章 汇率政策及宏观调控

   中国的汇率政策及其对美元的意义

   中国立场

   政策备选方案

   西方国家的顾虑

   价格扭曲和全球再平衡

   中国与美元的未来

   未来20年的挑战

  第九章 实际汇率和人民币

   引言

   1994~2004年之谜

    可贸易商品的一价定律

    劳动套利

    封闭的资本账户*

   2004年以后的实际汇率升值

    逐渐减少的经常账户盈余

    逐渐增加的寡头垄断租金

    贸易改革的放缓

    逐渐上升的相对工资成本

   宏观经济政策和人民币

    储备积累和货币重商主义

    流动性和冻结

    放松资本管制的效果

    单边升值的情况

    通过货币紧缩升值

    贸易征税

   结论

   致谢

  第十章 中国和东亚贸易:脱钩谬误、危机和政策挑战

   危机前贸易模式

    东亚贸易中的中国

    区域内贸易模式

   全球金融危机之后的贸易表现

   政策选项

   结论

  第十一章 亚洲外国直接投资和“中国效应”

   引言

   中国FDI流入的增长

   分析框架和实证模型

   假说

    市场规模和东道国经济体的经济增长

    东道国经济体的要素成本

    国家风险(国家信用评级)

   实证模型和变量设定

   回归结果和解释

   中国和亚洲经济体未来FDI流入的意涵

   结论

  第十二章 全球金融危机与农村劳动力向城市迁移

   早期的研究发现以及我们的假设

   数据

   全球金融危机对劳动力市场的影响结果:城市视角

   全球金融危机对劳动力市场的影响结果:农村视角

   结论

 第三篇 政策与改革:未完成的任务

  第十三章 避免中国在走向繁荣的路上出现经济崩溃

   引言

   中国走向繁荣的崎岖道路

   潜在的硬件故障

   潜在的软件故障

   增长动力不足的问题

   为避免在通往繁荣的路上崩溃而应该遵循的改革议程

    解决潜在的硬件故障

    解决潜在的软件故障

    解决环境退化导致的动力不足问题

    解决贸易保护主义导致的经济动力不足问题

   结论

  第十四章 成本扭曲与中国的结构失衡

   一 引言

   二 中国结构失衡的表现

   三 过去的政策努力

   四 要素成本扭曲

   五 结束语

  第十五章 从农民工到市民:中国特色的深度城市化

   一 引言

   二 农民工进城的不可逆转性

   三 “托达罗教条”的终结

   四 公共服务均等化的条件

   五 结语

  第十六章 自主创新促进可持续发展

   引言

   中国的创新能力及所取得的成绩

   企业层面的创新

   国际视角

   对未来经济增长的启示

   结论

  第十七章 中国医疗卫生体制与未来20年改革

   导言

   中国医疗卫生领域发展的历史

   公社的终结与社会化医疗

   结构性问题

   中国医疗领域内的恶性循环

   通过保险打破恶性循环

   改革有效性

   需方战略与结构性问题

   结构性问题如何阻碍改革

   动机缺陷也阻碍供方改革

   2009年4月医疗改革

   前景与总结

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