第一章 石油安全的实质

  第一节 石油的战略地位

   一 石油对经济发展的重要作用

   二 石油在国防和军事上的战略地位

   三 石油在国家外交中的战略地位

   四 石油安全直接关系到国家经济安全

  第二节 石油安全的含义、演变及其实质

   一 石油安全的一般含义

   二 对石油安全的不同认识和观点：理论与现实

   三 本书对石油安全的基本界定

   四 石油安全的实质：从供应安全到价格安全

 第二章 世界石油供需总体格局及其展望

  第一节 世界石油资源储量概况

   一 世界石油储量增速有所下降

   二 世界石油资源分布相对集中

   三 非传统石油产地储量比重上升

   四 海洋石油资源潜力巨大

  第二节 世界石油需求（消费）状况

  第三节 世界石油供给（生产）状况

   一 世界原油产量稳中有升

   二 原油生产仍以中东为核心

   三 世界炼油工业由发达国家向发展中国家转移

  第四节 世界石油供需的变化趋势及未来展望

   一 世界石油需求趋势展望

   二 世界石油供应趋势展望

 第三章 国际石油市场金融化及石油价格走势

  第一节 石油的金融属性

   一 原油供求特点所决定的石油金融属性

    1.石油供给特点

    2.石油需求特点

   二 世界石油供需空间分布不均衡所决定的石油金融属性

  第二节 国际石油市场的金融化

   一 石油定价机制的金融化

    （一）国际原油及成品油的价格体系

     1.国际原油价格体系

     2.国际成品油价格体系

    （二）石油期货市场的发展及其对现货市场的决定性影响

     1.美国石油期货市场

     2.英国石油期货市场

     3.新加坡石油期货市场

     4.日本石油期货市场

     5.石油期货市场日益成为“定价中心”

    （三）国际石油价格体系及定价机制的金融化

   二 石油与国际货币体系的密切联系

    1.美元与石油经济

    2.世界石油计价和结算货币变化的可能性与前景

   三 国际投机资本对石油市场的投机与操纵

    1.石油期货市场的投机力量

    2.若干启示

   四 国际石油基金的金融化运作

    （一）国际石油基金类型

    （二）油价运行独立化——对冲基金对国际油价的影响

  第三节 石油价格的形成机理及定价方法

   一 国际石油价格形成理论

    1.石油资源稀缺论

    2.垄断地租和垄断价格论

   二 国际石油定价机制及方法

    （一）理论价格

     1.边际成本定价法

     2.影子价格法

     3.收益现值法

    （二）交易价格

     1.OPEC官方价格

     2.非OPEC官方价格

     3.现货市场价格

     4.期货交易价格

     5.净回值价格，又称倒算净价格（net back pricing）

     6.价格指数

    （三）国际石油定价权

     1.国际石油定价权的历史变迁

   三 国际原油价格的历史趋势及影响因素

    （一）历史上的石油危机

    （二）国际原油价格剧烈波动的影响因素分析

     1.油价与经济周期密切相关

     2.供给（生产）与需求（消费）因素对石油价格起着基础性和长期性作用

     3.金融市场上的投机因素越来越成为油价波动的主导因素

     4.油价波动与美元波动高度相关

     5.地缘政治是影响油价的重要因素之一

     6.季节轮换与自然灾害等天气因素对原油价格的影响也越来越明显

     7.炼油行业的问题

  第四节 近年来国际原油价格走势特点及其对未来走势的基本判断

   一 近年来国际原油价格走势特点

   二 未来国际石油价格的变动趋势

   三 未来发生世界性石油危机的可能性及其展望

    （一）基于供应前景的危机

    （二）基于价格的危机

 第四章 中国石油安全的现状及发展态势

  第一节 石油供应安全：石油供应的瓶颈制约日益显现

   一 我国石油供需矛盾不断加剧

   二 对国外石油资源的依存度不断提高

   三 石油进口来源地有限且集中，石油运输主要靠海运且路线单一、控制薄弱，过度依赖外籍油轮

    1.石油进口来源地有限且集中

    2.石油运输主要靠海运且路线单一、控制薄弱

    3.石油海上运输过度依赖外籍油轮，石油进口极易受制于人

   四 “走出去”战略面临诸多不确定因素

    1.面临美国的多方钳制

    2.面临日本的敌意竞争

    3.面临俄罗斯的戒心

    4.面临跨国石油公司的挤压

   五 石油储备不足，难以应对突发性供应暂时中断或短缺

   六 石油行业管理体制和机制不完善

    1.本应由政府制订规划或进行监管的一系列问题上严重缺位，由此导致对石油工业发展中的一些重大问题缺乏统筹考虑、统一规划

    2.石油行业高度垄断、竞争性差

    3.能源市场严重缺位

   七 国内石油企业竞争力差，国际市场经验不足

    1.上下游产业链结构比例不合理

    2.业务区域狭窄，业务范围单一

    3.技术自主开发能力薄弱

    4.信息化建设滞后

    5.石油石化企业的改革与发展还存在许多不利的因素，体制机制落后，与外国的跨国公司相比还存在相当大的距离

  第二节 石油价格安全：国际油价的大幅波动对我国石油安全的影响越来越大

   一 我国石油定价机制的历史变迁及发展概况

    1.传统计划经济体制下的石油价格机制（1955～1981年）

    2.向市场价格过渡的双轨制（1982～1998年）

    3.石油价格向市场决定机制逐步转变（1999～2008年）

    4.成品油价税费改革（2009年开始实行）

   二 我国现行石油定价机制存在的主要问题

    1.挂靠油种问题

    2.交易双方规范运作问题

    3.成品油价格功能弱化

    4.成品油价格明显滞后于市场

    5.风险采购机制徒有虚名，不能起到避险的作用

    6.石油市场缺乏竞争

    7.我国没有应对国际油价异常波动的手段，缺乏有效的石油价格避险机制，这给国民经济平稳发展带来风险

    8.现行机制两边不讨好

   三 国际、国内原油价格互动关系研究

    1.我国原油价格与国际原油价格之间存在长期协整关系

    2.无论是长期还是短期的国际原油价格变化都会推动我国原油价格变化，而长期国内原油价格变化会影响国际原油价格，短期变动不能影响国际原油价格

    3.我国原油价格对国际原油价格变化存在一个正反馈

    4.短期内我国原油价格几乎不对国际原油价格产生影响，但从长期来看，我国原油价格对国际原油价格具有一定影响力

   四 国际石油价格波动对我国经济及金融安全的影响

    （一）石油冲击及其宏观经济效应

    （二）国际石油价格剧烈波动对我国宏观经济的影响

     1.国际石油价格上涨对我国经济社会发展的正面影响

     2.国际石油价格上涨对我国经济的直接影响

     3.国际石油价格上涨对我国经济的间接影响：主要表现为产品出口面临着下降的潜在危险

    （三）国际石油价格剧烈波动对我国金融安全的影响

     1.石油价格剧烈波动对股票市场的影响

     2.石油价格剧烈波动对债券市场的影响

     3.石油价格剧烈波动对货币市场的影响

     4.石油价格剧烈波动对汇率的影响

  第三节 中国石油安全的发展态势：面临严峻挑战

   一 我国石油的供应预测：前景不容乐观

    （一）中国石油资源前景

    （二）中国石油生产前景

   二 我国石油的需求预测：消费强劲增长

   三 国际石油定价权的争夺：危机日益明显

 第五章 中国石油安全保障体系的建立和完善

  第一节 加快建立石油金融战略体系

   一 建立以期货市场为核心的多层次石油交易市场体系

    1.石油期货市场对保障我国石油战略安全具有重要作用

    2.我国建立石油期货市场的条件已基本具备

    3.尽快开设石油期货市场，逐步形成自己的报价系统，积极融入全球石油定价体系

   二 灵活运用石油外汇

    1.动用外汇储备抓紧建立国家战略石油储备

    2.利用期货市场，把石油期货仓单作为新形式的外汇储备

   三 建立石油银行体系：石油政策性银行、石油商业银行

    1.石油政策性银行

    2.石油商业性银行

   四 建立石油基金体系：石油产业投资基金、石油金融投资基金、石油综合基金

    1.石油产业投资基金

    2.石油金融投资基金

    3.石油综合基金

   五 建立石油衍生工具市场体系：石油债券、石油期权、石油保险及相关衍生产品

    1.石油债券

    2.石油期权

    3.石油互换

    4.特有的一些石油衍生产品

  第二节 改革与完善国家石油管理体制和石油定价机制

   一 建立完善的石油市场运行机制和石油行业管理体制

    1.继续推进政企分开

    2.强化政府监管

    3.完善石油天然气法规体系

    4.推进石油产业市场化进程

   二 进一步改革和完善石油定价机制

    1.我国石油定价机制改革需要注意的几个问题

    2.石油定价机制市场化改革的总体设计

    3.石油定价机制改革的关键是协调好各利益相关者之间的关系

  第三节 加快建立并不断完善石油战略储备体系

   一 加快建立和完善石油现货战略储备或石油实物战略储备

    1.建立和完善石油战略储备的目的与作用

    2.建立和完善战略石油储备的制度设计

   二 建立石油期货战略储备或石油外汇储备

  第四节 加大国内资源勘探开发力度，加强石油国内供给体系建设

   一 立足国内石油资源、加大勘探开发力度是石油安全的根本保障

   二 确保海洋权益，加大海洋石油资源开发力度

   三 加强石油产业综合管理，进一步提高能源业整体实力，确保石油基本供应

  第五节 加快转变经济发展方式，建立石油替代战略体系

   一 转变经济发展方式，推动产业结构优化升级，逐步降低石油需求

   二 全面开展节约能源活动，优化能源结构，提高能源利用效率

    1.必须坚定不移地执行节约能源的政策，坚持“开发与节约并重，把节约放在首位”的能源总方针

    2.优化能源的生产和消费结构

   三 加快对石油替代能源的开发利用

   四 加大对新能源的开发力度

   五 大力发展天然气产业

  第六节 积极开展国际石油竞争与合作，建立石油国际合作体系，加快实施“走出去”战略

   一 进一步发展石油进口贸易，实行进口渠道多元化，建立多元化石油供给体系，努力实现进口来源、方式、品种和渠道的多元化，最大可能地分散风险

   二 建立多样化的石油运输通道，保障进口石油运输安全

    1.加快拓展多样化的石油运输通道

    2.尽力维护海外能源运输通道的安全

    3.强力捍卫周边海域的资源所有权

    4.借助政治、外交和其他手段确保海外油源的稳定供应

   三 积极实施“走出去”战略，到国外投资石油资源的勘探、开采、加工，用投资收益换回石油，充分利用国外石油资源

    1.“走出去”的基本条件是具备的

    2.政府必须大力支持

    3.提升我国石油工业整体实力，努力打造具有国际竞争力的跨国石油公司，成为“走出去”的强大实体

    4.采取多种形式，提高实施“走出去”战略的有效性

   四 积极参与国际石油市场运作，最大限度地影响国际石油价格的形成

   五 加大石油外交力度，改善与石油出口国的关系

    1.要正确认识和判断国际石油的外交形势

    2.利用矛盾，发挥优势，全方位开展石油外交

    3.主动参与创造稳定的国际环境，维护石油运输路线安全

    4.加强合作，建立双赢机制原则

 参考文献

 Chapter 1 Essence of Oil Security

  1.1 Strategic Position of Oil

   1.1.1 Important Role of Oil for Economic Development

   1.1.2 Strategic Position of Oil in National Defense and Military

   1.1.3 Strategic Position of Oil in Country’s Foreign Affairs

   1.1.4 Oil Security Directly Related to National Economic Security

  1.2 Implication，Evolution and Essence of Oil Security

   1.2.1 General Implication of Oil Security

   1.2.2 Different Understandings and Perspectives on Oil Security：Theory and Practice

   1.2.3 Basic Definition of the Oil Security in This Book

   1.2.4 Essence of Oil Security：from Supply Security to Price Security

 Chapter 2 Overall Pattern and Prospect of World Oil Supply and Demand

  2.1 Overview of Reserves of Oil Resource in the World

   2.1.1 decline of Growth Rate of Global Oil Reserves

   2.1.2 Relatively Concentrated Distribution of World’s Oil Resources

   2.1.3 Proportions of Reserves in Untraditional Oil Producing Regions Have Increased

   2.1.4 Great Potential of Offshore Oil Resources

  2.2 Status of World Oil Demand（Consumption）

  2.3 Status of World Oil Supply（Production）

   2.3.1 World’s Crude Oil Output Steadily Rises

   2.3.2 Middle East is Still the Core of Crude Oil Production

   2.3.3 World’s Oil Refining Industry Transfers from the Developed Countries into Developing Countries

  2.4 Trend and Future Prospect of World’s Oil ?Supply and Demand

   2.4.1 Prospect of World Oil Demand

   2.4.2 Prospect of World Oil Supply

 Chapter 3 Financial Property and Oil Price Trend of the International Oil Market

  3.1 Financial Property of Oil

   3.1.1 Financial Property Defined by the Supply-and-Demand Characters of Crude Oil

    1. Characters of Oil Supply

    2. Characters of Oil Demand

   3.1.2 Financial Property of Oil Defined by the Imbalance in the Space Distribution of the Oil Supply and Demand in the World

  3.2 Financialization of International Oil Market

   3.2.1 Financialization of the Oil Pricing Mechanism

    Ⅰ The International Price Systems of Crude Oil and Product Oil

     1. International Price System of Crude Oil

     2. International Price System of Product Oil

    Ⅱ Development in the Oil Futures Market and Its Decisive Impact on the Spot Market

     1. U.S. Oil Futures Market

     2. UK Oil Futures Market

     3. Singaporean Oil Futures Market

     4. Japanese Oil Futures Market

     5. Oil Futures Market Increasingly Becomes “Pricing Center”

    Ⅲ the Financialization of International Oil Price System and Pricing Mechanism

   3.2.2 Close Relationship between Oil and International Monetary System

    1. USD and the Petroleum Economics

    2. Possibility and Prospect for the Change in Pricing and Settlement Currency of World Oil

   3.2.3 International speculative capital’s speculation and manipulation on oil market

    1. Speculation Power on Oil Futures Market

    2. Some Inspirations

   3.2.4 Financial operation of International Oil Fund

    1. Types of International Oil Fund

    2. Independence of Oil Price Trend—Hedge Fund’s Impact on International Oil Price

  3.3 The Formation Mechanism and ?Pricing Methods of Oil Price

   3.3.1 Formation Theory of International Oil Price

    1. Petroluem Resource Scarcity Theory

    2. Monopoly Rent and Monopoly Price Theory

   3.3.2 Pricing Mechanism and Method of International Oil

    Ⅰ. the Theoretical Price

     1. Marginal Cost Pricing Rule

     2. Shadow Price Method

     3. Present Earning Value Method

    Ⅱ. the Transaction Price

     1. OPEC Official Price

     2. Non-OPEC Official Price

     3. Spot Market Price

     4. Futures Price

     5. Net Back Value，also Known as Net Back Price

     6. Price Index

    Ⅲ. Pricing Power of International Oil

     1. Historical Changes of international oil pricing

   3.3.3 Historical trend and influencing factors of international crude oil price

    Ⅰ oil crisis in history

    Ⅱ Analysis on Factors Causing Sharp Volatility of International Crude Oil Price

     1. Oil Prices is Closely Related to Economic Cycle

     2. Supply（Production）and Demand（Consumption）Factors Play a Fundamental and Long-term Role on Oil Price

     3. Speculation on Financial Market is Increasingly Becoming the Dominant Factor of Fluctuation in Oil Price

     4. Fluctuation of Oil Price is Closely Related to Fluctuation of Dollar

     5. Geopolitics is One of the Important Factors Affecting Oil Price，Especially the Unexpected Political Events，Which Have Obviously Short-term Impact on Oil Price

     6. Weather Factors Such as Seasonal Rotation and Natural Disasters also Have Increasingly Impact on Crude Oil Price

     7. Refining Industry Issues

  3.4 Basic Judgments on International Crude Oil Price ?and Its Future Trend in Recent Years

   1. Price Trend of International Crude Oil in Recent Years

   2. The Future Trend of International Oil Price

   3. Possibility and Prospect of Future World Oil Crisis

    （1）The Crisis Based on Supply Outlook

    （2）Price-based Crisis

 Chapter 4 The Status Quo and Development Trend of China’s Oil Security

  4.1 Oil Supply Security：The Bottleneck Constraint of ?Oil Supply Is Increasingly Prominent

   4.1.1 The Contradiction Between Oil Supply and Demand in China Continuously Worsened

   4.1.2 Continuous increase of dependency on foreign oil supplies

   4.1.3 The Source Areas of Petroleum Imports are Limited and Concentrated，and the Oil Transportation Is Mainly by Sea，Featured as Single Route，Weak Control and Over-dependence on Foreign Tankers

    1. The Source Areas of Petroleum Imports are Limited and Concentrated

    2. The Petroleum Transportation Is Mainly by Sea，Featured as Single Route and Weak Control

    3. Petroleum Marine Shipping Is Over-dependent on Foreign Tankers

   4.1.4 The Strategy of “Going Global” with Uncertainties

    1. The China’s “Going Global” Strategy Is Constrained in Many Aspects by the U.S.

    2. China Faces Bostile Competition from Japan

    3. China Faces Suspicion from Russia

    4. China Faces Squeezing from the Multinational Corporations

   4.1.5 Insufficient Oil Reserves Cannot Handle Accidental Supply Disruption or Supply Shortage

   4.1.6 Imperfection of Management System and Mechanism in the Oil Industry

    1. The Omission of Governmental Planning or Supervision on a Series of Issues Leads to Some Key Issues in the Oil Industry Development Which are Lack of Consideration and Integrated Planning

    2. The Oil Industry is Bighly Monopoly and Lack of Competition

    3. Omissions Are Serious in the Energy Market

   4.1.7 The Competitiveness of Chinese Oil Enterprises Is Poor and Their International Market Experience Is Insufficient

    1. For Chinese Oil Industry，the Proportion Structure of Upstream and Downstream of Industrial Chain Is Irrational

    2. Business Area Is Narrow and Business Scope Isn’t Diversified

    3. The Capability of Independent Technical Development Is Weak

    4. Informationization Construction Is Backward

    5. There Are Many Negative Factors in the Reform and Development of Petroleum and Petrochemical Companies

  4.2 The Security of Petroleum Price：The Great Volatility ?of International Oil Price Has More and More ?Significant Influences on China’s Oil Security

   4.2.1 The Brief History and Development of Petroleum Pricing Mechanism in China

    1. Under the Petroleum Price Mechanism in the Traditional Planned Economic System（1955～1981）

    2. From 1982 to 1988 Witnessed the Double-track Pricing System in Transition to the Market Price

    3. The Petroleum Price Gradually Moved to the Market-decided Mechanism（1999～2008）

    4. The Reform of the Prices of Refined Oil Products and Taxes and Fees on Them was Implemented in 2009

   4.2.2 The Main Issues in China’s Current Oil Pricing Mechanism

    1. The First Problem is Affiliated Oil Types

    2. The Second Is the Standardization Issue in Trading Parties

    3. The Function of Refined Oil Price is Weakened

    4. The Refined Oil Price Obviously Lags Behind of the Market

    5. Acquisition Risk Mechanism Is just a Name，and Cannot Serve a Risk-avoidance Role

    6. The Oil Market Is Lack of Competition

    7. China is Lack of Measures to Handle the Abnormal Fluctuation of International Oil Price and Lack of Effective Risk-avoidance Mechanism，Which Will Bring Risks to the Stable Development of National Economy

    8. Current Mechanism Is not Pleased to Both Sides

   4.2.3 Research on Interactive Relationship between International and Domestic Crude Oil Price

    1. There Is a Long-term Co-integration Relationship Between China’s Crude Oil Price and International Crude Oil Price

    2. Both Long-term and Short-term International Crude Oil Price Variation Will Cause the Change of China’s Crude Oil Price，While Long-term Domestic Crude Oil Price Variation Will Influence the International Crude Oil Price，but Short-term Variation can not Influence the Same

    3. There Is a Positive Feedback of China’s Crude Oil Price to the International Crude Oil Price Variation

    4. In Short Term，China’s Crude Oil Price Will Hardly Have Influence on the International Crude Oil Price，but in the Long Run，China’s Crude Oil Price Will Have Some Impact on the International Price

   4.2.4 The Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuation on China’s Economic and Financial Security

    Ⅰ Oil Shock and Its Macroeconomic Effects

    Ⅱ The Influence of Sharp Fluctuation of International Oil Prices on China’s Macro-economy

     1. The Positive Effect of International Oil Price Rise on China’s Economic and Social Development

     2. The Direct Influence of International Oil Rise on China’s Economy

     3. The Indirect Impact of International Oil Price Rise on China’s Economy Is that the Product Export Is Facing The Potential Risk of Reduction

    Ⅲ The Influence of Sharp Fluctuation of International Oil Prices on China’s Financial Security

     1. The Impact of Sharp Fluctuation of International Oil Prices on the Stock Market

     2. The Impact of Sharp Fluctuation of International Oil Prices on the Bonds Market

     3. The Impact of Sharp Fluctuation of International Oil Prices on the Currency Market

     4. The Impact of Sharp Fluctuation of International Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate

  4.3 The Development Trend of China’s Oil Security：?Severe Challenge

   4.3.1 Forecast of China’s Oil Supply：The Outlook is not Optimistic

    Ⅰ Outlook of China’s oil resources

    Ⅱ Outlook of China’s oil production

   4.3.2 Forecast of China’s Oil Demand：Strong Growth in Consumption

   4.3.3 International Contention for Oil Pricing Right：Crisis is Increasingly Evident

 Chapter 5 Establishment and Perfection of Chinese Oil Security Guarantee System

  5.1 Expediting the Establishment of ?Oil Financial Strategic System

   5.1.1 Establishing Multi-level Oil Trading Market System Centered on Futures Market

    1. Oil Futures Market Plays an Important Role in Guaranteeing the Oil Strategic Security of Our Country

    2. Conditions for Our Country to Establish Oil Futures Market Basically Exist

    3. Set Up Oil Futures Market As Soon As Possible，Form Our Own Quotation System Gradually and Blend into International Oil Pricing System Positively

   5.1.2 Apply Oil Foreign Exchange in A Flexible Way

    1. Speed Up the Establishment of National Strategic Oil Reserves with Foreign Exchange Reserves

    2. Utilize Futures Market to Take Oil Futures Warrants As a New Form of Foreign Exchange Reserves

   5.1.3 Establish Oil Bank System：Oil Policy Bank and Oil Commercial Bank

    1. Oil Policy Bank

    2. Oil Commercial Bank

   5.1.4 Establish Oil Fund System：Oil Industry Investment Fund，Oil Financial Investment Fund and Oil Integrated Fund

    1. Oil Industry Investment Fund

    2. Oil Financial Investment Fund

    3. Oil Integrated Fund

   5.1.5 Establish Oil Derivatives Market System：Oil Bonds，Oil Options，Oil Insurances and Relevant Derivatives

    1. Oil Bonds

    2. Oil Options

    3. Oil Swaps

    4. Specific Oil Derivatives

  5.2 Reform and Improve National ?Oil Management System and ?Oil Pricing Mechanism

   5.2.1 Establish Perfect Oil Market Operating Mechanism and Oil Industry Management System

    1. Continue to Separate Government Functions From Enterprise Management

    2. Improve Government Supervision

    3. Perfect the Legal System of Oil and Gas

    4. Push the Process of Marketization of Oil Industry

   5.2.2 Further Reform and Perfect Oil Pricing Mechanism

    1. Several Major Problems in the Reform of Oil Pricing Mechanism of Our Country

    2. Overall Design of Marketization Reform of Oil Pricing Mechanism

    3. The Key of Reforming Oil Pricing Mechanism is to Coordinate Well The Relation Between Each Stakeholder

  5.3 Accelerate the Establishment and Completion of ?Oil Strategic Reserve System

   5.3.1 Accelerate the Establishment and Completion of Spot Strategic Reserve or Physical Strategic Reserve of Oil

    1. Set Up and Complete the Purpose and Effect of Oil Strategic Reserve

    2. Establish and Perfect Institution Design of Strategic Oil Reserve

   5.3.2 Establish Oil Futures Strategic Reserve or Oil Foreign Exchange Reserve

  5.4 Enhance the Exploration and Development of Domestic Resources and Strengthen the Construction of Domestic Oil Supply System

   5.4.1 It is the Fundamental Guarantee for Oil Security to Set a Foothold on Domestic Oil Resource and Enhance the Exploration and Development

   5.4.2 Protect Marine Rights and Enhance the Development of Marine Oil Resources

   5.4.3 Enhance the Comprehensive Management of Oil Industry and Further Improve the Overall Strength of Energy Industry to Ensure Basic Oil Supply

  5.5 Accelerate the Transformation of the Economic Development Mode and Establish the Strategic System for Replacement of Petroleum

   5.5.1 Transform the Economic Development Mode，Promote the Optimization and Upgrading of the Industrial Structure and Whittle Down the Demand for Petroleum

   5.5.2 Extensively Carry Out Energy-Saving Activities，Optimize the Energy Structure and Enhance the Energy Utilization Efficiency

    1. Push Forward the Energy-saving Strategy Unswervingly and Adhere to the General Energy Policy of “laying Equal Stress on Development and Saving While Putting Saving in the First Place”

    2. Optimize the Energy Production and Consumption Structure

   5.5.3 Step Up Development and Utilization of the Alternative Energy for Oil

   5.5.4 Strengthen Development of New Energy Sources

   5.5.5 Exert Great Efforts to Develop Natural Gas Industry

  5.6 Actively Participate in International Oil Competition and Cooperation，Build up International Cooperation System in Oil and Expedite the “Going Out” Strategy

   5.6.1 Further Develop Import Trade in Oil，Diversify Import Channels，Establish Diversified Oil Supply System，Make Efforts to Realize Diversified Import Origins，Modes，Varieties and Channels，and Decentralize the Risks to the Greatest Extent as Possible

   5.6.2 Building Diversified Oil Transportation Thoroughfares to Ensure Secure Transportation of Imported Oil

    1. Expedite the Expansion of Diversified Oil Transportation Thoroughfares

    2. Exert All Efforts to Maintain the Security of Overseas Energy Transport Corridors

    3. Defend the Ownership of Resources at Surrounding Seas with Powerful Efforts

    4. Ensure Stable Overseas Oil Supply by Virtue of Political，Diplomatic and Other Means

   5.6.3 Proactively Carry out the “Going Out” Strategy to Make Investments in Foreign Oil Resources Exploration，Exploitation and Processing for Oil in Return by Income from Investment so as to Fully Utilize Foreign Oil Resources

    1. The Basic Conditions for “Going Out” are Met

    2. The Government Must Provide Energetic Support

    3. Upgrade the Overall Strength of China’s Petroleum Industry，and Make Efforts to Build Internationally-competitive Transnational Petroleum Companies and to Become Powerful Entities for “Going Out”

    4. Take Various Forms to Improve the Effectiveness of “Going Out” Strategy

   5.6.4 Actively Participate in International Oil Market Operation to Affect the Forming of International Oil Price to the Greatest Extent as Possible

   5.6.5 Intensify Oil Diplomacy Efforts and Improve Relations with Oil Exporting Countries

    1. Correctly Recognize and Judge the International Oil Diplomacy Trend

    2. Carry Out Full-range Oil Diplomacy by Use of Contradictions and Exerting Advantages

    3. Actively Take Part in Creating a Stable International Environment and Maintaining the Security of Oil Transportation Lines

    4. Enhance Cooperation and Establish Win-win Mechanism Principle

 References

当前及未来很长一个时期，基于石油安全的复杂性与战略性，为保证中国石油安全，我们必须将石油安全置于国家战略层面考虑，把保障石油安全纳入国家长期战略规划，以全球化、市场化和系统化思维来谋划石油安全的保障。其中的关键是，加快建立和完善以“一个核心、四大支柱、五项配套”为主要内容的石油安全保障体系。“一个核心”指以石油金融战略体系为核心，建立统一、开放、竞争、有序、规范、高效的多层次石油市场；“四大支柱”是指石油外汇、石油银行、石油基金、石油衍生工具，并以其作为石油金融战略体系的核心要素；“五项配套”包括石油管理体制、石油战略储备体系、石油国内供给体系、石油替代战略体系及石油国际合作体系。