中国金融安全的多向度解析图书
china's financial safety:a multi-dimensional snalysis
[内容简介] 透视国际金融风云变换 阐释金融安全理论要义 解析中国金融安全现实 建构中国金融安全模式 扉页文字更改英文书名;
上篇 金融危机引发的金融安全思考
1 金融危机:全球视角的回顾与反思
1.1 金融危机的演进和冲击:一般理论分析
1.1.1 金融危机演进过程
1.1.2 金融危机的冲击
1.2 美国金融危机的反思:基于制度层面
1.2.1 金融体系:市场主导型与银行主导型
1.美国市场主导型金融体系的形成
2.市场主导型金融市场的收益
3.市场主导型的风险
1.2.2 市场经营模式:分业经营与混业经营
1.分业经营与混业经营的比较
2.混业经营与金融效率
3.混业经营与金融风险:美国金融危机分析
1.2.3 市场监管:功能监管与统一监管
1.金融市场结构与市场监管
2.混业经营与金融监管
3.功能监管和统一监管
4.美国新一轮金融危机:混业经营与分业监管的背离
1.3 日本金融危机:演进与启示
1.3.1 泡沫时代之前的日本经济
1.3.2 “广场协议”与日本政策的失误
1.3.3 日本泡沫和金融危机
1.3.4 日本金融危机的启示
1.4 东亚金融危机:回顾与反思
1.4.1 东亚金融危机的演进
1.4.2 金融危机之前的东亚模式
1.4.3 东亚金融危机的反思
1.5 美国金融危机与“大萧条”:比较与启示
1.5.1 两次危机的相似性
1.房地产泡沫是两次危机的引爆点
2.两次危机的破坏力极大
3.危机的爆发和金融部门非审慎行为密不可分
4.近乎相同的危机传导机制
5.政府的强力干预
1.5.2 两次危机的差异性
1.两次金融危机的历史背景不同
2.两次危机的性质有所差别
3.美联储的救援态度和救援力度大相径庭
4.两次危机对金融监管和金融改革的作用不同
1.5.3 两次金融危机的启示
1.制度性缺陷是金融危机爆发的最大根源
2.金融是现代市场经济的核心,而流动性是金融的核心
3.协调金融创新与金融监管的关系
4.货币金融当局的有力救援是金融风险扩散的有效防火墙
2 经济周期与金融危机:金融加速器视角的解释
2.1 金融加速器理论的萌芽与发展脉络
2.2 金融加速器理论的现实解释力
2.2.1 经济周期中的金融加速器
2.2.2 金融加速器与金融危机
1.金融加速器与亚洲金融危机
2.金融加速器与次贷危机
2.3 金融系统顺周期研究:金融加速器理论的发展方向
3 从美国次贷危机看金融创新与金融安全
3.1 金融创新与金融安全:理论及历史考察
3.1.1 金融创新对金融安全的积极作用
1.金融创新效应:微观层面
2.金融创新效应:宏观层面
3.1.2 金融创新对金融安全的负面影响
3.1.3 金融创新与金融安全的历史分析
1.金融制度创新导致的金融危机
2.金融产品创新导致的金融危机
3.金融全球化条件下的金融危机
3.2 金融创新与次贷危机:案例剖析
3.2.1 次贷危机中的主要金融创新
1.多层次的住房抵押贷款产品创新
2.资产证券化和担保债务权证
3.财务管理、资产管理和资本运作的创新
3.2.2 次贷危机中金融创新对金融安全的冲击
1.房地产抵押贷款产品创新埋下次贷危机爆发的种子
2.资产证券化带来的信贷市场不稳定性
3.财务管理、资产管理和资本运作创新导致的金融体系风险
4.全球化使得次贷危机的风险在全球扩散,危及全球金融稳定
3.2.3 美国次贷危机的反思
3.3 金融危机之后的金融创新:评价与路径
3.4 保障金融创新中的金融安全:相关措施
4 金融危机与实体经济稳定:资产价格波动视角的分析
4.1 相关文献回顾及述评
4.1.1 资产价格波动与实体经济稳定的相关性
4.1.2 资产价格波动影响实体经济稳定的机制
1.资产价格波动通过财富效应影响消费
2.资产价格波动通过投资效应影响投资
4.2 样本说明、模型设定与实证方法
4.2.1 变量选择和数据说明
4.2.2 局部均衡和一般均衡模型的设定
1.局部均衡分析模型:引入资产价格的消费与投资函数
2.一般均衡分析模型:引入资产价格的IS-LM扩展模型
4.2.3 实证方法
4.3 实证模型检验与分析
4.3.1 时间序列的ADF和Granger检验
1.时间序列的ADF检验
2.资产价格与消费、投资和实体经济的Granger检验
4.3.2 局部均衡分析:对消费和投资的影响
1.长期影响程度的确认:协整检验
2.影响关系的稳定性分析:VECM检验
3.动态化的影响过程:脉冲响应分析
4.短期影响程度的确认:方差分解分析
4.3.3 一般均衡分析:对实体经济总体的影响
1.资产价格波动对商品市场总需求的影响程度
2.资产价格波动对交易性货币需求的影响程度
3.资产价格波动对实体经济稳定的影响
4.4 小结
5 金融危机、金融重建与金融安全
5.1 金融重建的内在逻辑
5.2 在积极推进金融创新的同时不断完善金融监管
5.3 构建金融安全的长效机制
5.3.1 深化改革以完善金融业的体制和机制
5.3.2 加快创新以提高金融业的综合实力
5.3.3 强化竞争以增强金融业的活力
5.4 加强监管以提高金融业的稳健性
中篇 银行体系稳定与金融安全
6 宏观经济波动与中国银行体系的稳定
6.1 银行体系稳定:界定与衡量
6.2 对中国银行体系稳定的基本判断(1978~2009年)
6.3 影响银行体系稳定的宏观经济要素:文献回顾与变量选择
1.经济增长率
2.金融自由化
3.汇率变动
4.通货膨胀
5.财政赤字占GDP的比重
6.外汇储备与M2之比
7.资本产出比
8.储蓄增长率
6.4 研究分析与政策启示
6.4.1 模型设定与数据来源
6.4.2 研究结论分析
6.4.3 政策启示
7 货币政策立场与银行风险承担
7.1 文献综述
7.1.1 货币政策立场与银行风险承担:概念界定、传导渠道及其宏观审慎意涵
7.1.2 货币政策立场与银行风险承担:传导路径与作用机理
1.利率影响估值、收益和现金流,放大“金融加速器”效应
2.“追逐收益”路径
3.“习惯形成”路径
4.央行沟通政策和反应函数的放大效应
7.1.3 货币政策立场与银行风险承担关联的影响因素
1.宏观经济状况
2.银行业市场结构
3.银行特征变量
7.2 模型建构与实证检验
7.2.1 模型构建与变量选择
7.2.2 实证分析
1.模型所涉变量的描述性统计
2.面板数据的单位根检验与协整检验
3.参数估计与分析
7.2.3 稳健性检验
7.3 小结
8 制度环境对商业银行绩效的影响
8.1 制度环境与银行绩效:一个文献综述
8.1.1 制度环境:界定及测度
8.1.2 制度环境影响银行绩效的理论基础
8.1.3 制度环境与银行绩效:经验证据与逻辑线索
8.2 模型构建与变量选择
8.3 实证结果
8.3.1 面板数据的单位根检验与协整检验
8.3.2 模型参数估计
8.3.3 稳健性检验及对参数估计结果的再讨论
8.4 小结
9 宏观经济要素、银行特征与不良贷款
9.1 文献评述
9.1.1 宏观经济要素对不良贷款的影响
9.1.2 银行特征与不良贷款
1.“劣质管理”假设和“克扣”假设
2.多元化假设
3.“大而不倒”假设
4.道德风险假设
9.2 模型构建与变量选择
9.2.1 模型建构
9.2.2 数据来源
9.2.3 变量的描述性统计
9.3 模型估计与检验
9.3.1 面板数据的单位根检验与协整检验
9.3.2 模型估计
9.3.3 模型检验及总结
9.4 小结
10 利益相关者治理与银行业的社会责任
10.1 利益相关者参与商业银行公司治理的必要性
10.2 利益相关者治理:内涵及结构
10.2.1 利益相关者治理的内涵
10.2.2 利益相关者治理的结构
1.董事会层面的社会责任职能
2.董事会多样性
3.利益相关者参与
10.3 利益相关者治理与善尽社会责任:一个委托—代理框架下的考察
10.4 实施利益相关者治理促使我国银行业履行社会责任:方案及制度安排
10.4.1 “参与+对话”机制:关键利益相关者参与内部治理,与全体利益相关者保持对话
10.4.2 我国商业银行健全利益相关者治理的具体措施
1.在董事会层面设立企业社会责任(CSR)职能
2.优化董事会结构,强化董事会的多样性
3.构建利益相关者对话机制,提高利益相关者参与程度
下篇 金融安全的行为特征与网式保障
11 证券分析师利益冲突与投资者利益
11.1 证券分析师利益冲突的存在机理
11.1.1 证券分析师利益冲突及其主要来源
11.1.2 证券分析师利益冲突的存在机理
11.2 证券分析师利益冲突对投资者利益的影响:1995~2007年相关实证研究结论的分析
1.没有确凿的证据表明预测偏误与利益冲突相关
2.分析师的预测普遍趋于乐观
3.关联分析师推荐的价值不一定低于独立分析师
4.利益冲突引致的预测偏误不一定会误导投资者
11.3 为什么分析师利益冲突对投资者利益不一定构成影响
1.为什么利益冲突不一定导致预测偏误
2.为什么有偏误的投资评级不一定损害投资者利益
11.4 小结
12 配股融资、市场反应与投资者收益
12.1 相关研究文献述评
12.1.1 理论研究文献:业绩与公告效应
12.1.2 实证研究成果:配股公司业绩下降但股价未必随之下降
12.1.3 文献评论与研究方向
12.2 样本选择与研究方法
12.2.1 数据来源与研究样本选择
12.2.2 事件研究方法与步骤
12.3 模型设定
12.3.1 正常收益率计算模型的选择
12.3.2 确定AR和CAR的统计显著性
12.3.3 多元横截面回归方程的设定
12.3.4 实证检验步骤
12.4 配股融资影响市场的幅度:实证检验与分析
12.4.1 配股公告新信息的提前泄露与吸收时间
12.4.2 不同时间窗口的市场反应特征
12.4.3 不同时间窗口市场反应的内在逻辑
12.5 配股融资影响市场的途径:多元模型检验结果与分析
12.5.1 多元回归模型的异方差性:White检验
12.5.2 不同时间窗口下配股融资影响市场的途径与机制
12.5.3 配股融资在(-30,5)和(-30,10)内影响市场的途径与机制
1.资产规模、市净率、配股价格折让率和配股比率对累计超额收益率具有助涨作用,而且影响力度随时间跨度增加而增强
2.资产负债率和配股融资规模对CAR具有助跌作用,而且前者大于后者
12.5.4 配股融资在(-30,30)内影响市场的途径与机制
12.5.5 配股融资在(-30,125)和(-30,250)内影响市场的途径与机制
12.6 小结
13 治理金融腐败与保障金融安全
13.1 金融腐败:含义、表现及经济危害
13.1.1 金融腐败:含义及表现
13.1.2 金融腐败的经济危害
13.2 金融腐败的肇因*:兼析我国金融腐败的影响因素
13.2.1 法制建设
13.2.2 激励机制
1.宏观层面的激励机制设计
2.微观层面的激励机制设计
13.2.3 社会规范
1.国家层面的社会规范
2.组织层面的社会规范——企业文化
13.3 治理金融腐败的长效机制设计
13.3.1 完善防治金融腐败的法律体系
13.3.2 优化金融行业反腐激励机制
13.3.3 加强廉政文化建设
14 存款保险制度的建设与金融安全:以韩国为例
14.1 文献综述
14.1.1 关于存款保险制度的研究成果
14.1.2 关于韩国存款保险制度的研究成果
14.2 国际存款保险体系概览
14.2.1 存款保险制度的产生
14.2.2 存款保险制度的发展
14.3 韩国存款保险制度概况
14.3.1 韩国存款保险制度的历史沿革
14.3.2 韩国存款保险结构
14.3.3 韩国存款保险公司的组织架构
14.3.4 韩国存款保险公司的权力保障
14.3.5 韩国存款保险制度与其他存款保险制度之比较
1.美国存款保险制度
2.英国存款保险制度
3.德国存款保险制度
4.加拿大存款保险制度
5.日本存款保险制度
6.印度存款保险制度
7.匈牙利存款保险制度
14.4 韩国存款保险制度的运行机制
14.4.1 韩国存款保险基金的资金来源及管理
14.4.2 韩国存款保险的担保范围
14.4.3 韩国存款保险公司处理问题金融机构的方式和步骤
14.4.4 韩国存款保险的合作机制
14.5 韩国存款保险制度的经验总结及评价
14.5.1 韩国存款保险制度的经验
1.韩国存款保险制度日常运行的经验
2.韩国存款保险制度应对危机的经验
14.5.2 韩国存款保险制度的评价
1.韩国存款保险制度的运行绩效
2.韩国存款保险制度存在的问题
14.6 韩国存款保险制度对我国的启示
14.6.1 我国建立存款保险制度的现状考察
14.6.2 韩国存款保险制度对我国建立存款保险制度的启示
1.时机选择
2.运行机制
3.辅助机制
14.7 小结
15 金融安全网:基于信息空间理论的分析
15.1 构建金融安全信息网的紧迫性
15.2 信息空间分析框架与金融安全网的适用性
15.3 金融安全网信息空间的结构层次及其特征
15.4 小结
主要撰稿人
总序
1.〔马来西亚〕沈联涛:《十年轮回》,杨宇光等译,上海远东出版社,2009。
2.〔美〕查尔斯·金德尔伯格:《疯狂、惊恐和崩溃:金融危机史》(第四版),朱隽等译,中国金融出版社,2007。
3.〔美〕弗雷德里克·米什金:《货币金融学》(第四版),李扬等译,中国人民大学出版社,1998。
4.〔美〕卡尔-约翰·林捷瑞恩:《银行稳健经营与宏观经济政策》,潘康、张卫东、康以同、王忠译,中国金融出版社,1998。
5.〔美〕罗伯特·希尔:《非理性繁荣》(第二版),李心丹等译,中国人民大学出版社,2008。
6.〔美〕迈克尔·塞勒:《金融研究:方法论大全必备》,金马译,清华大学出版社,2005。
7.〔美〕米尔顿·弗里德曼:《货币稳定方案》,宋宁等译,上海人民出版社,1991。
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简 介:时隔五年,次贷危机余威犹存,全球金融局势虽呈企稳迹象,但仍充满了不确定性。回望近一个世纪以来爆发的金融危机,其频度和烈度无一不在加剧,这不由得引发了人们的又一次深思:如何才能建立起有效的金融危机抵御与管理机制,维护金融体系安全,使金融体系处于相对稳定的运行状态?本书应时而动,致力于找到破解这一难题的方法。
作者:
何德旭
出版社:社会科学文献出版社
出版时间: 2013年04月
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