篇章数

20

引证文献

1 !

参考文献

174

2019年世界经济形势分析与预测图书

Annual Report on World Economy Analysis and Forecast (2019)

SSAPID:101-1591-5727-66
ISBN:978-7-5097-6113-7
DOI:
ISSN:

[内容简介] 本书对2018年世界经济运行情况及2019年发展趋势进行分析与预测,内容涉及本年度世界经济形势及美国、欧洲、日本、俄罗斯、亚太、拉美、西亚非洲和中国等国家与地区经济形势的分析与展望,并就国际贸易、国际金融、国际直接投资、国际大宗商品市场及“一带一路”建设、《减税与就业法案》对世界和中国经济的影响、特朗普政府贸易政策、美国利率上升对全球经济的现实冲击与潜在影响、中国下一步的对外开放等专题和热点问题做了比较深入的讨论。

相关信息

丛书名:世界经济黄皮书
编 辑:郑庆寰;柯宓
出版社:社会科学文献出版社
出版时间: 2018年12月
语 种:汉文
中图分类:F1 世界各国经济概况、经济史、经济地理

 基本子库

 Contents

 世界经济黄皮书编委会

 社会科学文献出版社皮书系列

 皮书数据库

 摘要

 法律声明

 中国皮书网

 Ⅰ 总论

  Y.1 2018~2019年世界经济形势分析与展望

   一 概述

   二 世界经济总体形势

    (一)经济增速出现下行迹象

    (二)失业率保持低位运行

    (三)通货膨胀率稍有提升

    (四)国际贸易增速放缓

    (五)国际直接投资活动低迷

    (六)全球债务水平继续上升

    (七)金融市场出现动荡

    (八)大宗商品价格冲高回落

   三 影响世界经济的几个关键问题

    (一)美国经济下行的可能性

    (二)金融市场动荡影响程度

    (三)应对下一轮衰退的政策空间

    (四)全球贸易摩擦的演变

    (五)逆全球化的发展趋势

   四 2019年世界经济展望

 Ⅱ 国别与地区

  Y.2 美国经济:加速冲顶

   一 宏观经济增长呈现出持续的微弱下降趋势

    1.季度增长提速背后的潜在隐忧

    2.对当前美国经济走势的判断

   二 小步快跑的渐进加息节奏

    1.美联储对经济形势的判断和决策

    2.影响货币政策决策的诸多因素

     (1)货币政策规则与货币政策沟通

     (2)自然利率、自然失业率和菲利普斯曲线的扁平化

     (3)货币政策工具

   三 财政状况面临挑战

    1.2018年的美国财政状况持续恶化

    2.白宫与国会的财政展望差距

   四 公司部门形势依然不容乐观

    1.公司部门运营状况有所改善,但利润增长放慢

    2.公司部门的运营环境

   五 外部经济部门的形势和政策变化

    1.对外经济部门

    2.特朗普贸易政策及其影响

   六 结论和展望

  Y.3 欧洲经济:内生动力减弱,外部风险增加*

   一 宏观经济增长形势

    (一)经济增长:增速减弱

     1.欧元区的德、法、意等主要经济体经济增速下滑

     2.欧元区的其他国家大部分经济增长稳中有降

     3.英国经济增速放缓

    (二)就业态势:继续改善

    (三)物价水平:小幅上升

   二 货币与金融状况

    (一)货币政策:保持宽松

    (二)货币供给:继续增加

   三 财政状况

    (一)财政状况:有所好转

    (二)财政联盟:前景不明

   四 国际因素对欧洲经济的影响

    (一)经常项目:顺差增加

    (二)欧元汇率:先升后降,小幅升值

   五 对欧洲经济增长的展望

  Y.4 日本经济:低速复苏

   一 2017~2018年总体经济情况

   二 货币政策

   三 财政政策

   四 企业与就业

   五 国际收支与对华经贸投资关系

   六 2019年日本经济形势展望

  Y.5 亚太经济:经济趋于下行,外部不确定性上升*

   一 亚太经济形势回顾:2017~2018年

    1.经济增长保持稳定

    2.通货膨胀略有回升

    3.亚太地区的货币相对美元全部贬值

    4.经常账户余额下降

   二 亚太主要国家经济形势回顾:2017年第三季度至2018年第二季度

    1.韩国

    2.印度尼西亚

    3.印度

    4.澳大利亚

    5.加拿大

   三 2019年亚太经济展望

  Y.6 俄罗斯经济:增长持续

   一 2017~2018年俄罗斯总体经济形势

   二 财政收支出现盈余

   三 货币和银行业运转顺畅

   四 国际收支明显改善

   五 对俄罗斯经济增长的预测

  Y.7 拉美经济:复苏进程中存有隐忧

   一 2017年与2018年上半年经济情况

    1.经济持续缓慢复苏

    2.通货膨胀压力依然存在

    3.货币贬值压力加大

    4.经常项目逆差有所扩大

    5.货币政策进入观察期

    6.财政状况继续保持稳定

   二 主要经济体的经济形势

    1.巴西

    2.墨西哥

    3.阿根廷

    4.委内瑞拉

   三 中美贸易摩擦对拉美经济的影响

    (一)中美贸易摩擦对拉美地区的直接影响

    (二)中美贸易摩擦对拉美地区的间接影响

   四 拉美地区经济形势展望

  Y.8 西亚非洲经济:不确定性加大

   一 西亚非洲经济形势回顾

   二 西亚非洲主要国家经济形势回顾

    (一)埃及:整体向好

    (二)伊朗:有衰退风险

    (三)沙特阿拉伯:走势向好,风险提升

    (四)尼日利亚:有所改善,后劲不足

    (五)南非:不稳定的温和复苏

   三 西亚非洲地区经济展望

  Y.9 中国宏观经济形势分析与展望:基于工业企业结构分化的视角

   一 GDP名义增速下行,工业企业利润数据面临两大悬疑

   二 工业企业利润增速是否反映了真实情况?

   三 工业企业利润增速稳定背后的国企、民企的分化及其原因

   四 工业部门国企、民企分化带来的关切点

   五 结论与展望:需以结构政策应对工业企业分化

 Ⅲ 专题篇

  Y.10 国际贸易形势回顾与展望:形势尚可,风险犹存

   一 2017年国际贸易形势回顾

   二 2018年国际贸易形势分析

    (一)2018年上半年国际贸易形势分析

    (二)2018年下半年国际贸易形势预测

    (三)2018年全年国际贸易形势预测

   三 2019年国际贸易形势展望

   四 估算贸易摩擦对世界贸易形势的影响

   五 结论

  Y.11 2018年国际金融形势回顾与展望

   一 国际金融风险

   二 新兴市场货币贬值和金融脆弱性显现

   三 全球债务问题进一步恶化

   四 全球债券市场

    (一)全球长期国债市场

    (二)国际负债证券市场

   五 全球股票市场

   六 全球外汇市场

   小结与展望

  Y.12 国际直接投资形势回顾与展望

   一 全球大部分地区国际直接投资表现低迷

    1.FDI流入:发达国家大幅下降,发展中国家较为平稳

    2.FDI流出:全球普降,中国有史以来首跌

   二 国别投资政策

   三 国际投资协定:终止的个数首次超过新达成的个数

   四 中国的国际直接投资形势面临新的挑战

   五 前景展望

  Y.13 国际大宗商品市场形势回顾与展望:平衡和调整

   一 大宗商品市场总体状况

   二 石油的实际供需情况

   三 中国需求

   四 货币金融因素

    (一)货币因素的影响

    (二)商品期货市场的影响

   五 国际大宗商品价格趋势展望

  Y.14 “一带一路”建设:向高质量发展转变

   一 “一带一路”五大合作重点建设进展

    (一)政策沟通与战略对接

    (二)基础设施互联互通

    (三)贸易与投资合作

    (四)金融合作

    (五)民心相通

   二 “一带一路”六大经济走廊建设新成果

    (一)中蒙俄经济走廊

    (二)新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊

    (三)中国-中亚-西亚经济走廊

    (四)中国-中南半岛经济走廊

    (五)中巴经济走廊

    (六)孟中印缅经济走廊

   三 “一带一路”建设新亮点

    (一)对接上海合作组织发展新战略

    (二)中非合作论坛开辟“一带一路”建设新空间

    (三)中国国际进口博览会推动“一带一路”贸易畅通更加均衡发展

   四 “一带一路”建设向高质量发展转变的措施与方向

    (一)加强合作制度化建设

    (二)防范重点国别投资风险

    (三)发挥企业主体作用

    (四)遏制企业非理性对外投资

    (五)积极应对贸易保护主义冲击

 Ⅳ 热点篇

  Y.15 《减税与就业法案》实施对世界和中国经济的影响

   一 《减税与就业法案》的主要内容

    (一)新税法降低了在美经营企业的税收负担

    (二)新税法重新设计了涉外经济活动的税收规则

     1.对海外利润做“视同汇回”处理,并取消递延制度

     2.建立新税种抵销企业的跨境避税收益

   二 新税法对美国税收制度的影响

    (一)美国商业税制的竞争力得到增强

    (二)新税法增加了美国税收体系的复杂性

    (三)新税法公平性有限,加剧贫富差距

   三 新税法对美国经济的影响

    (一)减税对美国短期经济增长有贡献

    (二)减税对经济的长期拉动作用不明朗

    (三)减税将提升美国的财政赤字水平

   四 新税法对世界经济的影响

    (一)利润、资本回流美国会给其他国家经济增长带来压力

    (二)新税法对他国税收政策的影响

   五 美国新税法对中国经济的影响

    (一)中国商业税制的相对竞争力降低

    (二)短期资本外流压力增大

    (三)税改可能进一步加剧美国的经常账户逆差,或导致贸易冲突升级

   六 在复杂世界中继续中国的税收改革步伐

  Y.16 美国式的“公平、对等的自由贸易”

   一 特朗普贸易政策的不同Trade Policy Agenda and 2016 Annual Report of the President of the United States on the Trade;2018 Trade Policy Agenda and 2017Annual Report of the President of the United States on the Trade Agreements Program,这两份报告都可以从美国贸易代表办公室(https://ustr.gov/)网站上获得。">*

   二 特朗普贸易政策的主要内容

    (一)特朗普贸易政策的五大方面

    (二)特朗普贸易政策典型案例

     (1)重新谈判北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA),形成新的美墨加协定(USMCA)

     (2)美韩FTA的重新谈判

     (3)狼烟四起的贸易争端

   三 针对中国的政策

   四 对于美国贸易政策的简单评价

  Y.17 美国利率上升对全球经济的现实冲击与潜在影响

   一 引言

   二 美国经济复苏与利率变动状况

    (一)美国经济复苏动能稳健,各项指标稳中向好

    (二)近年来美国短期利率持续上升

    (三)美国长期利率上升乏力

   三 美国短期利率上升对全球经济的现实冲击

    (一)导致部分国家出现短期资本持续外流

    (二)部分新兴市场国家货币兑美元显著贬值

    (三)部分新兴市场国家被迫加息,加速其国内资产价格调整

   四 美国长期利率上升对全球经济造成的潜在冲击

    (一)加剧美国资本市场波动程度

    (二)长期利率持续上行将对美国经济复苏构成负面冲击

    (三)长期利率上行对新兴经济体的潜在影响

   五 结论和政策建议

    (一)结论

    (二)政策建议

  Y.18 中国下一步的对外开放:国际经验借鉴与启示

   一 对外开放政策的国际经验

    1.对外贸易和知识产权保护政策

    2.外商直接投资(FDI)和对外直接投资(ODI)

    3.汇率制度

    4.资本项目管理

   二 对外开放政策的作用

    1.对外开放政策与经济结构升级

    2.对外开放与经济稳定的影响

   三 对中国开放政策的启示

   附录:

  Y.19 全球智库重点关注的中美经济议题

   一 全球智库关注焦点

   二 围绕美国的重要议题

    1.特朗普政府的贸易政策

    2.美国经济走向及关键风险

   三 围绕中国经济的重要议题

    1.当前中国宏观经济面临的挑战与出路

    2.审视“一带一路”倡议走向

   四 小结

 Ⅴ 世界经济统计与预测

  Y.20 世界经济统计资料

   目录

   说明

   (一)世界经济形势回顾与展望

   (二)世界通货膨胀、失业形势回顾与展望

   (三)世界财政形势回顾与展望

   (四)世界金融形势回顾与展望

   (五)国际收支形势回顾与展望

   (六)国际贸易形势回顾

   (七)国际投资与资本流动回顾

   (八)全球竞争力和大公司排名

 Abstract

 主要编撰者简介

2018年世界经济整体增速与上一年持平,但是大多数国家出现了经济增速回落。全球失业率仍然保持低位,充分就业状况和大宗商品价格上涨促使各国通货膨胀率有所提高。同时,世界经济还表现出国际贸易增速放缓、国际直接投资活动低迷、全球债务水平持续提高和金融市场出现动荡等特征。未来世界经济面临诸多挑战,这些挑战包括:美国经济下行的可能性较大,金融市场可能进一步出现剧烈动荡,各主要国家应对下一轮经济衰退的政策空间受到限制,全球贸易摩擦可能带来较大负面影响,逆全球化措施将阻碍国际贸易和投资的发展。地缘政治风险、民粹主义和民族主义扩张等问题也将影响世界经济的稳定与发展。预计2019年按PPP计算的世界GDP增长率约为3.5%,按市场汇率计算的增长率约为2.9%。这一预测低于国际货币基金组织和其他国际组织预测。较低的预测主要反映了对于美国经济下行风险、金融市场动荡风险、应对衰退的政策空间受限、贸易摩擦影响以及逆全球化趋势等问题的担忧。另外,预计2019年大宗商品价格将比2018年略有下降,原油价格将处于65美元/桶左右。

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简 介:《广州城市国际化发展报告》是广州市社会科学院国际问题研究所编辑出版、跟踪研究城市国际化发展的蓝皮书,从学术视野探究广州城市国际化发展的途径。本书从全球城市排名评价分析、国际经贸、国际交往、国际传播等方面对广州城市国际化状况展开研究,并设国际交往中心专题就城市国际化的升级发展路径展开探讨,提出广州着力建设国际交往中心、全...

作者: 尹涛 伍庆 胡泓媛
出版社:社会科学文献出版社
出版时间: 2019年06月