量化数据分析:通过社会研究检验想法图书
Quantitative Data Analysis:Doing Social Research to Test Ideas
[内容简介] 本书主要对明确定义的总体的代表性样本数据进行分析,并附带地提到数据收集方法;涵盖了多种技术,包括表格分析、针对表格数据的对数线性模型、各种形式的回归分析、回归诊断和稳健回归、处理缺失数据的各种方法、逻辑斯蒂回归、用于构建测度的因子分析技术和其他技术,以及作为一种因果推论方法的固定效应和随机效应模型;强调使用这些方法对社会如何运行进行研究,并得出相关结论。
相关信息
附录A 书中所用数据的说明和下载地址
英文版序言
导言
译者序言
中文版序言
第1章 列联表基础
本章内容
通过具体实例介绍全书
列联表
做百分数表的方向
控制变量
暂停一下,想想这个问题
本章小结
第2章 列联表中的变量关系
本章内容
分析的逻辑
虚假相关
干预变量
抑制变量
相加效应和交互效应
直接标准化
实例1:美国城市黑人中分激进类别与宗教信仰虔诚度的关系
实例2:对人类是从动物进化来的观点的认同(用2个或更多控制变量的直接标准化)
实例3:南非职业地位的种族差异
实例4:中国城乡文化水平的差异
关于统计控制与实验的最后说明
本章小结
第3章 列联表的拓展
本章内容
重新组织表格以获取新的信息
合并维度
合并类别以表达新概念
何时用“反向”百分数表
当因变量为均值时的列联表
从缺失数据的信息做推断
表达同样数据的其他方法
相异指数
如何描述列联表
本章小结
第4章 用计算机进行数据操作
本章内容
引言
如何组织数据文件
题外话:卡片组和卡片形式的计算机文件
变换数据
重新编码
代数变换
列联变换
缺失数据
分析带有缺失数据的调查
本章小结
附录 用Stata进行分析
用Stata进行分析的一些建议
用-do-文件做所有工作
养成深入检查自己工作的习惯
详尽记录-do-文件
在-do-文件中包含“辅助”计算
作为最后的检查,再次运行-do-文件
用好Stata手册
一些特别有用的Stata 10.0命令
第5章 相关和回归(常规最小二乘法)介绍
本章内容
引言
量化某种关系的大小:回归分析
评估某种关系的强度:相关分析
相关和回归系数之间的关系
影响相关(和回归)系数大小的因素
异常值和杠杆点
删截
向均值回归
汇总
相关比率
本章小结
第6章 多元相关和回归(常规最小二乘法)介绍
本章内容
引言
量测回归系数
检验单个系数的显著性
标准化系数
判定系数(R2)
估计量的标准误(均方根误差)
一个具体例子:中国人识字水平的决定因素
图示结果
虚拟变量
组间比较的方法
用与它们均值的偏差重新表示变量
检验额外的假设:强制系数为0或等价量
比较模型的贝叶斯方法
独立检验
本章小结
第7章 多元回归技巧:处理特殊分析问题的技术
本章内容
非线性变换
曲线关系:年龄和收入
半对数变换:收入
流动效应
检验系数的等价性
趋势分析:检验线性假设
预测性别角色态度随时间变异:一个具体例子
线性样条
一个具体例子:美国教育获得的历时趋势
第二个具体例子(具有非连续性特征):中国在“文化大革命”前后以及“文化大革命”期间的教育质量
将系数表示为总均值的偏差(多分类分析)
表示虚拟变量的其他方法
效应编码
比较编码
序次系数
分解两个均值之差
一个具体例子:影响教育获得种族差异的因素
分解均值间差异的补充读物
本章小结
第8章 缺失数据的多重填补法
本章内容
引言
个案剔除法
加权个案剔除法
均值替换法
热卡填补法
完全贝叶斯多重填补法
一个具体例子:在俄罗斯,文化资本对教育获得的影响
创建实际模型
创建填补模型
比较个案剔除法和多重填补法的结果
本章小结
第9章 抽样设计与调查估计
本章内容
调查样本
简单随机样本
多阶段概率样本
分层概率样本
设计效应
用分层抵消整群效应
一个具体例子:中国的识字水平
错误识别效应
设计效应
次级总体分析:教育和种族对女性收入的影响
合并历年GSS数据
结论
本章小结
第10章 回归诊断
本章内容
引言
一个具体例子:地位获得的社会差异
准备工作
杠杆作用
异常值
影响作用
评估影响的图示
增加变量图
残差—拟合图与数据模式的正规检验
稳健回归
自举法和标准误
本章小结
第11章 测度构建
本章内容
引言
效度
信度
测度构建
加总测度法
以因子为基础的测度法
例子:宗教信仰虔诚度与对堕胎的态度(再次讨论)
似不相关回归
效应比例测度法
含误差变量回归
本章小结
第12章 对数线性分析
本章内容
引言
选择一个合适的模型
基于拟合优度的模型选择
基于理论的模型选择
效应参数
另一个具体例子:反共情绪
对多分类变量进行对数线性分析
对个体数据进行对数线性分析
简约模型
拓扑或层次模型
准独立模型
准对称模型
跨越模型
统一关联模型
线性乘线性关联模型
行效应(和列效应)模型
行—列效应模型Ⅱ(RC模型或对数乘积模型)
扩展
文献注释
本章小结
附录12.A 效应参数的推导
附录12.B 最大似然估计法介绍
正态分布的均值
对数线性参数
第13章 二项逻辑斯蒂回归
本章内容
引言
与对数线性分析的关系
逻辑斯蒂回归的第一个具体例子:预测枪械威胁的发生率
第二个具体例子:日本的教育递进率
第三个具体例子(离散时间风险率模型):初婚年龄
第四个具体例子(案例—对照模型):在俄罗斯,谁被任命为政党当权人物?
本章小结
附录13.A 关于对数和指数的一些代数基础
附录13.B Probit分析介绍
第14章 多项和序次逻辑斯蒂回归及tobit回归
本章内容
多项logit分析
具体例子:捷克人使用外语的情况
无关选择的独立性
序次逻辑斯蒂回归
具体例子:1998年美国的政治党派认同
针对删失因变量的tobit回归(及同类方法)
Tobit模型
具体例子:性生活频率
针对受限因变量的其他分析模型
本章小结
第15章 改进因果推断:固定效应与随机效应模型
本章内容
引言
针对连续型变量的固定效应模型
基本的FE方程
允许X变量的斜率变化
检验取值不随时间变化的变量效应是否随时间变化
取值不随时间变化的变量和取值随时间变化的变量之间的交互项
两个以上时点的分析
个体之间而非时间前后的固定效应
固定效应方法的局限性与应注意的事项
针对连续型变量的随机效应模型
一个具体例子:中国收入的决定因素
针对二分结果变量的固定效应模型
针对二分结果变量的随机效应模型
一个二分结果变量的具体例子:迁移对南非黑人入学的影响
文献注释
本章小结
第16章 思考与未来的方向:研究设计和解释问题
本章内容
研究设计问题
比较是核心
内生性、样本选择偏误及其他影响正确因果推论的因素
结构方程模型
概率抽样的重要性
超总体
最后一个建议:养成良好的专业素养
了解数据属性
探讨可替代先验假设的其他解释
进行敏感性分析
记录你的研究过程
最后一遍查错
本章小结
词汇表
附录B 用综合社会调查数据做调查估计
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简 介:本书基于代际视角制订了规范完整的定量研究框架,创新构建了系统集成的定量研究思路,通过多角度的描述性分析、多模型的解释性分析和多维度的宏观分析,深入、系统地探讨了我国社会成员教育获得与教育流动的总体状况、不平等变动和影响逻辑。本书研究成果对于我国社会成员代际教育获得与教育流动具有重要的理论阐释意义,同时,对于今后改善我国...
作者:
张义祯
出版社:社会科学文献出版社
出版时间: 2018年08月
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