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参考文献

342

中国是否跨越了刘易斯转折点图书

SSAPID:101-0530-0928-15
ISBN:978-7-5097-2876-5
DOI:
ISSN:

[内容简介] 刘易斯转折点的到来,意味着廉价劳动力支撑的经济增长模式,开始并将逐渐发生变化。按照新古典增长理论,如果劳动力短缺这个假设成立的话,资本劳动比的提高将会导致资本报酬递减。这时,要保持经济增长的可持续性,必须有全要素生产率的良好表现。因此,刘易斯转折点是否到来,对于经济增长有着十分重要的意义。

相关信息

丛书名:
作 者: 蔡昉 杨涛 黄益平
编 辑:恽薇;许秀江
出版社:社会科学文献出版社
出版时间: 2012年03月
语 种:中文
中图分类:F0 经济学

 作者介绍

 绪论

  绪论

 第一编 刘易斯转折点到来的证据

  人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点

   一 引言

   二 人口转变与二元经济发展阶段

   三 中国人口转变的经济影响

   四 如何缩小“未富先老”缺口?

   五 结语和政策含义

  中国经济到了刘易斯转折点了吗?

   一 二元经济理论

   二 中国农村劳动力供给研究现状

   三 数据描述

    (一)甘肃省外出劳动力打工情况

    (二)甘肃省农村内部工资情况

    (三)东部、中部、西部农村内部工资情况

    (四)劳动力外出打工年龄结构

   四 实证分析

   五 结论

  解析1965~2009年中国二元经济的发展*

   一 引言

   二 文献综述

    (一)刘易斯—拉尼斯—费(Lewis-Ranis-Fei)模型

    (二)相关实证文献

   三 中国的发展经历

    (一)中国的二元经济发展

    (二)劳动力在部门间的再配置

   四 模型

   五 数据

   六 生产函数估计

    (一)稳定性检(Stationarity Tests)

    (二)生产函数的估计结果

   七 二元结构增长的实证分析

    (一)中国二元化经济增长的源泉

    (二)劳动力的重新配置对经济增长的贡献

    (三)中国经济发展的几个阶段及其转折点

   八 结论和政策建议

  农民工还能返回农业吗?

   一 前言

   二 农业劳动力成本的变化

   三 农业生产中的劳动和资本投入的变化

    1.劳动投入

    2.农业资本投入

    3.农业资本—劳动投入比

   四 农业劳动生产率的变化

   五 主要结论

 第二编 刘易斯转折点到来的含义

  中国农村非农就业

   一 引言

   二 数据

   三 2000年前后非农就业趋势

    (一)组群效应和非农就业变化趋势

    (二)自营工商业企业的性质

   四 工资率、外出务工增长和自营工商业停滞不前

    (一)就业方式选择、工资和收入:概念基础

    (二)2000年前后工资变化趋势

    (三)就业方式选择、工资和收入:实证发现

    (四)劳动力在自营工商业与外出务工之间的就业选择

   五 结论

  刘易斯转折点对中国意味着什么?

   一 简介

   二 GTAP模型及实验

   三 劳动力短缺对中国经济的影响

   四 对世界经济的影响

   五 向一个正常的、活跃的经济体转变

   六 结语:中国能避免“中等收入陷阱”吗?

  刘易斯转折点的宏观经济学含义*

   一 剩余劳动型经济

   二 拐点到来

   三 现实与经典模型的区别

   四 中国正在进入转折期的证据?

   五 转折期和中国发展

  刘易斯转折点到来后中国经济增长会放缓吗?

   一 前言

   二 转折点理论及其启示

   三 解释跨越转折点后经济增长潜力的新理论

   四 新增长理论对中国的适用性

   五 中国经济进一步增长的条件

   六 结束语

   七 致谢

 第三编 关于刘易斯转折点的不同观点

  中国的剩余劳动力枯竭了吗?

   一 前言

   二 目前的争论

   三 城镇非技术工人的工资增长

   四 中国农村的剩余劳动力已经枯竭了吗?

   五 减少流动人口回流的效果:2020年以前农村劳动力供给预测

   六 结论

  中国的民工荒与农村剩余劳动力*

   一 引言

   二 刘易斯模型

   三 中国劳动力市场的变化趋势

   四 文献综述

   五 数据

   六 农民工工资

    (一)其他研究

    (二)2002年和2007年的CHIP数据

   七 潜在的外出人口

   八 对未来的预测

   九 结论

  中国已经到达刘易斯转折点了吗?

   一 计量模型

   二 实证结果

    (一)数据

    (二)供给曲线

    (三)需求曲线

   三 结论

  新古典理论与城乡劳动力市场的发展

   一 引言

   二 有关经济发展的不同观点

    (一)古典主义刘易斯模型

     1.农业部门

     2.工业部门

     3.发展阶段和刘易斯转折点

    (二)新古典主义发展模型

    (三)对工资增长的影响

    (四)新古典主义理论的其他方面

   三 实证分析

    (一)二元经济和中国劳动力市场改革

    (二)农村和城市部门的收入增长

     1.来自总体数据的证据

     2.来自微观数据的证据

    (三)人口迁移与劳动力市场发展

     1.农村劳动力市场和城乡迁移

     2.跨省迁移

     3.教育收益

   四 结论

中国是否已经跨越刘易斯转折点、刘易斯转折点对于中国经济增长意味着什么、中国经济应该如何应对,以及刘易斯理论是否适用于中国等问题,近年来在经济学家、投资实践者和政策制定者中成为时尚和热门的话题,众说纷纭、莫衷一是。本书收录的12篇经济学论文,反映了26位中外经济学家围绕这些问题进行的激烈辩论。尽管作者的观点不尽相同,甚至是针锋相对的,但无一不是运用了经济学的规范研究方法,强调理性思考和经验证明。出人意料的效果是,阅读本书之后,读者未必能够得出刘易斯转折点是否已经到来的结论,却会对中国经济发展面临的挑战以及应对之策有更深刻的理解。

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简 介:本书系统梳理了2019年全国财政政策和宏观经济的运行特点,对2020年财政政策、2020~2025年中国经济社会形势以及财政收支状况进行了展望。同时,对减税降费政策、2019年宏观经济政策协同作用进行了评估,对专项债、预算绩效管理、政府引导基金等财政管理的热点难点问题进行了探讨。

作者: 刘尚希
出版社:社会科学文献出版社
出版时间: 2020年09月